Modeling Local Service Reliabilities for the Parcel Distribution System

Demand for express parcel delivery has been greatly increasing in South Korea due to the growth of B2C e-commerce activities. It is imperative that parcel carriers have good insights into the performance of their distribution networks with different levels of demand and plan ahead for the adaptations in order to be able to meet future changes in demand. This paper proposes a framework to evaluate the likelihood of parcels arriving on-time to their destinations (local service reliability) with a strong focus being placed on their spatial distribution. The resulting maps of local service reliability allow us to identify specific locales that would suffer the most from a capacity overflow in the networking system, thus pointing to areas that need immediate attention. Furthermore, this paper attempts to identify potential factors which could affect the spatial variation of local service reliability.