Decision-making, optimisation, and risk-based asset management: a case study in Dominica

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) face unique challenges, including limited resources and disproportionately high exposure to natural hazards, which complicate the management of their critical road networks. While various risk-based asset management frameworks have been proposed, they are often conceptual and lack operational procedures or require elaborate data. Using a weighted objective function, this paper implements a practical framework that integrates current and forecasted risk, physical condition, and cost data. The framework also accounts for the remaining service life of investments, uses a simple greedy algorithm for work planning, and benchmarks plans against different budget scenarios. The methodology's flexibility was demonstrated through a case study on the road network in the Commonwealth of Dominica, which showed the tool's effectiveness with limited data. Despite this success, limitations such as missing data and subjective parameters highlight areas for future research, including sensitivity analysis and the incorporation of more advanced analytical models. This work provides a valuable, actionable approach for road management in low and middle-income countries.