The manufacturing industry perceives government standards as an attempt to unnecessarily increase production cost. This may be due to lack of acceptable models for demonstrating the associated benefits to industry. It was the goal of this study to develop a simulation model for predicting the performance of a manufacturing safety programme (SP).
The principles of system‐dynamics were applied to identify the relevant safety‐related components and their relationships. A simulation model for evaluating periodic performance of a manufacturing SP was then developed. A set a dynamic equations for predicting factory accidents or preventions and the monetary saving were the performance measures. Two set of factory data: non‐SP (1979) and SP (1991‐2004) were collected from a bottling company. The parameters of the model were estimated using the first set while it was validated with the second and associated monetary saving computed.
Solutions to factory accidents or preventions yielded exponential functions. The means and standard deviations of the predicted and actual accidents were 32 and 5.66; and 30 and 7.46, respectively. The corresponding values for predicted and actual preventions were 55 and 10.47; and 59 and 7.45, respectively. There were no significant differences between the predicted and actual for the accidents and preventions, respectively, at 5 per cent level. The predicted SP saving per annum was 6.96 millions.
The model is a useful tool for setting profitable manufacturing safety standards and effective SP management.
