Surviving the start: mapping the causal architecture of new venture endurance

This study aims to model the causal architecture of new venture survival from an enabling-conditions perspective.

Using cognitive mapping and Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM), the authors structure causal relations among 43 prioritized survival factors from a multidisciplinary expert panel and validate the hierarchy via MICMAC.

Product–market fit drives survival, human and strategic capabilities mediate it and financial outcomes are downstream consequences, reframing financial fragility as a symptom rather than a root cause.

The resulting framework supports diagnosis and intervention prioritization based on causal dependencies.