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Assuming the weakest link concept, a probabilistic model of fracture in concrete structures has been developed in terms of the critical stress intensity factors. The probabilistic model, which is expressed in the form of the Weibull distribution, has been compared with a range of experimental results in the literature. The results predicted by the formula are in good agreement with the values reported in the literature for four test specimen geometries – compact tension specimens, notched three-point bend specimens, wedge splitting specimens and compact compression specimens. The results presented in the paper have been applied to predict the fracture in large concrete dams and the results compare favourably with observed cracking.

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