Application of the one-parameter Bayesian method as the PBMD for concrete mix proportion design

This paper presents a systematic approach for estimating material performance and designing the mix proportion of concrete based on an application of a Bayesian method in the form of satisfaction curves. The one-parameter satisfaction curve represents a satisfaction probability for a concrete performance criterion as a function of the concrete material parameters. An analysis method for combining multiple satisfaction curves to form one unique satisfaction curve that can reduce the performance of concrete to a single evaluating value, the goodness value, is proposed as an evaluation tool for the performance-based mixture design procedure. The proposed performance-based mixture design procedure is applied to test cases to obtain a target-oriented concrete mix proportion design and to verify the validity of the proposed method. Finally, the expected performance results of a concrete mix proportion designed using performance-based mixture design are compared with results calculated using the American Concrete Institute estimation equation to check whether the method is applicable to actual construction.