Spatial time-dependent reliability analysis of corrosion damage to RC structures with climate change

The environment around concrete structures may be influenced by a changing climate, especially in the long run, leading to an acceleration of deterioration. Therefore, the safety, serviceability and durability of concrete infrastructure may decline at a faster rate than expected. Carbonation-induced deterioration to concrete structures constructed in Sydney, Australia and Kunming, China under a changing climate is investigated in this paper. Two emissions scenarios are considered – RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5, representing high and medium greenhouse gas emissions scenarios respectively. The spatial time-dependent reliability analysis includes time-dependent climate scenarios and deterioration processes, as well as a large number of random variables and spatial random fields of material properties and dimensions. The surface of concrete structures is discretised into a large number of elements and the likelihood and extent of corrosion damage is calculated by tracking the evolution of the corrosion process of each element using Monte Carlo simulations. The results show that a changing climate could cause the extent of damage to increase by up to 6% for reinforced concrete infrastructure in Kunming. The findings may be used to assess climate adaptation measures in the design stage, as well as a cost–benefit analysis of climate adaptation measures.