Road vehicles: future growth in developed and developing countries Available to Purchase

This paper examines the trends in the growth of the stock of road vehicles over the past decades and presents projections of its development over the next 25 years for 82 countries at different levels of economic development, from the lowest (China, India and Pakistan) to the highest (the USA, Japan and Europe). The countries included account for 85% of the world population and 93% of the total vehicle stock. The projections employ results from a previous study, which are based on estimates of a dynamic time-series model and an S-shaped function to relate the vehicle stock to income, or gross domestic product (GDP). The estimates are used, in conjunction with assumptions concerning income and population growth, to produce projections of the growth in the vehicle stock on a year-by-year basis to 2025. The projections are made for each country separately and aggregated on a regional level for developed and developing countries. The implications of the forecast growth for traffic, traffic density and CO₂ emissions are illustrated.