Uncovering patterns of state short-term debt financing

Despite balanced budget requirements, each year most states carry short term debt (STD) across fiscal years. Logit analysis results suggest structural fiscal stress causes states to carry STD across fiscal years. This strategy may not be rational, because STD is a tool for smoothing short-term shortfalls, and not for correcting structural fiscal stress. Cross sectional time series analysis results suggest both structural and cyclical factors influence the amount of year end STD. Findings suggest STD amounts fluctuate as a rational temporary replacement for long-term debt, growing when long term rates rise and decreasing when they fall.