... Financial forecasting Risk aversion Dominant theory Prospect theory S&P500 It is widely accepted and empirically demonstrated that the rational expectations theory and the efficient markets hypothesis do not generally hold for various suggested reasons. Thus, there is a growing acceptance...

... in using overlapping multiperiod returns” (Davis et al., 2004). © Emerald Group Publishing Limited 2011 S&P 500 index Kurtosis Serial correlation of volatilities Long‐term investment Financial forecasting A Monte Carlo simulation is random sampling from a given...

.... Capital asset pricing model Beta factor Stock returns Financial forecasting The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) developed by Sharpe (1964) , Lintner (1965) and Mossin (1966) has been the dominating capital market equilibrium model since its inception. The model predicts...

... be contacted at: linghe@uca.edu © Emerald Group Publishing Limited 2009 Financial forecasting Loans Interest rates United States of America Changes in mortgage rates can significantly affect the residential real estate market, which is a considerable part of the US economy...

... with Chinese stock market data provides some insights into the characteristics of emerging markets. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited 2008 China Stock markets Expectation Financial forecasting How decision makers form expectations is a significant issue in economic and financial studies...

... to crow about its successes while sloughing off failures. On the other hand, the plethora of institutions reduces innovation and market attractiveness. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited 2008 Financial forecasting Financial institutions Governance Sometimes it is fun to move from...

... Committee on Banking Supervision, Bank for International Settlements, February 2006. © Authors 2008 Financial forecasting Financial institutions Governance Almost to the day, on the fifth anniversary of the Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC's) implementing the Sarbanes‐Oxley Act...

....) © Emerald Group Publishing Limited 2005 Financial forecasting Bias Bayesian statistical decision theory In forecasting unknown quantities, risk and finance decision makers often rely on one or more biased experts, statistical specialists representing parties with an interest...