Stochastic model for strategic assessment of road maintenance

This paper describes the development of a stochastic model for the strategic assessment of road maintenance funding and policy decisions. The algorithms used for simulating pavement deterioration utilise Markov processes, resulting in a transition probability matrix that defines defect progression as opposed to the more familiar regression-type model popular with engineers. The model is designed to be used by road maintenance managers and senior administrators for planning medium- to long-term maintenance investment requirements for local and national road networks. Finally, the application of the model is demonstrated with a case study from central Europe.