Modelling sediment loads in the Lower Ganges, Bangladesh

The Ganges is one of the three major rivers in Bangladesh. It is a sediment laden, wide, meandering river. This paper deals with the stochastic modelling and prediction of sediment loads of the Lower Ganges river in Bangladesh. The annual variability of sediment loads has been examined. The annual sediment load series is trend free at 5% significance level. The means and standard deviations of monthly sediment load data show periodicity. Monthly sediment load data have been modelled and predicted using the Thomas–Fiering model for the dependent stochastic component and by taking variable month-to-month correlation structures into account. The statistical parameters of observed and predicted data fit very well and hence the predicted sediment load data may be used for future planning of water resource projects in Bangladesh. The limitations of the model have also been discussed.