Analysis of provision production security in Sichuan and countermeasures

The total provision output in Sichuan province fluctuates greatly, which is mainly caused by the influence of natural disasters. In this paper, the author analyzes several factors that affect Sichuan provision output by theory of gray system, then draws a conclusion that the important factors are irrigation area, pure dosage of fertilizer used, unit provision output, order prices, etc. and finally, puts forward some suggestions on how to reinforce production security. Though Sichuan is one of the big provisions in producing provisions, it also suffers natural disasters deeply. For example, in 1997 the area that suffered disasters is 2,447 kha, which is 25.76 percent of the whole crop area in Sichuan. The bad situation of big area of crop suffering disasters makes the total provision output fluctuate greatly. So how to increase the provision output stably by reinforcing production security has attracted much attention from all levels of the whole province.