One of the important characteristics of the hotel business is uncertainty of lodging demand, which can jeopardize hotel operation and ultimately even threaten a hotel’s survival during an economic recession. The purpose of this paper is to propose an approach to determine optimal hotel investment issues under uncertain lodging demand.
Uncertainty of lodging demand is classified into two types: the impact of unexpected economic recession and the temporary imbalance between supply of hotel rooms and lodging demand. A jump-diffusion real option approach is proposed to analyze how these two types affect optimal investment timing and the potential value of new hotel projects. The case of hotel investment in Macao is used to illustrate the jump-diffusion real option approach.
The results of numerical analysis show that the uncertainty induced by temporary imbalance between supply of hotel rooms and lodging demand increases the threshold of investment and hotel value, while the uncertainty induced by unexpected economic recession has ambiguous effects on the value and optimal investment timing of new hotel projects.
The jump-diffusion real option approach increases managerial flexibility for managers when making investment decisions on new hotel projects, allowing greater value to be generated than is possible with the conventional discounted cash flow method.
The approach separates the impact of unexpected economic recession on lodging demand from that of “normal” fluctuations in lodging demand, and it considers the impact of both types of uncertainty on hotel investment.
