This study aims to create a system dynamics simulation model to forecast the performance of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) if some decision-making is executed to reduce the negative of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. In particular, this study will focus on SMEs that belong to the furniture industry because the furniture industry is one of the leading industries in Indonesia.
The study develops a system dynamics-based model by using three subsystems, i.e. the “production subsystem,” “demand and revenue subsystem” and “raw material (or wood supply) subsystem.”
The best scenario is the third scenario which increases the capacity to the normal situation and government subsidy during and after the pandemic. This scenario gives the best performance for industry revenue and gross domestic product (GDP). However, for the government, the most significant expenditure occurs in the third scenario. This seems a trade-off for the government whether to save the wooden-based furniture industry by encouraging the industry to continue operating during the pandemic accompanied by high subsidies or limiting the activities of the wooden-based furniture industry to prevent the spread of COVID-19 by providing low subsidies.
First, this study does not try to combine the system dynamics (SD) methodology with the other method or use a multi-methodology since SD has several limitations and the other method may have several advantages compared to SD. Second, the models used in this study do not consider the decline in forest area and quality. Third, the demand for wooden-based furniture is obtained from historical data on domestic and foreign sales and fourth, the model does not include the government budget as a constraint to make any subsidy to help the SMEs.
This study provides essential insights into implementing the policies in the world pandemic situation when SMEs face lockdown policy.
The study revealed that relevant policy scenarios could be built after simulating and analyzing each scenario's effect on SMEs' performance during the pandemic.
This study will enrich the previous study on the impact of the pandemic on SMEs and the dynamic system modeling on SMEs. The previous study discussed the pandemic's impact on SME performance and the impact's analysis in isolation from the dynamic nature of SME owners' decisions or government policy. In this study, the impact generated from the pandemic situation could be different depending on the decision and policies taken by managers from SMEs and the government.
