The purpose of this paper is to explore how uncertainty as a concept is being faced in many areas of work (including libraries). The use of scenario planning in managing this uncertainty is to be examined.
Reasons for the prominence of uncertainty are identified from the broad management literature. The impact uncertainty has on the organisation, and the individual and strategic direction is also discussed using the literature. This provides the context to establish how uncertainty, has historically been faced, by libraries. The same approach is applied when the application of scenario planning in managing uncertainty is established. Scenario planning is investigated at the wider level and then the focus moves to its relevance for libraries.
Uncertainty is a strategic concern for many organisations (both proffer and not for profit), which poses specific challenges for managers. It is caused by technological developments and changes in markets with other contributions from environmental, fiscal and political factors. Scenario planning is a proactive way to manage the impact of uncertainty. By using scenarios it is possible to identify key factors that will have serious implications in the future. Taking actions and informed decisions based upon the scenarios, future risks can be avoided and possible opportunities anticipated. Effective scenarios can be produced by going through an agreed group process.
The paper provides an examination of different aspects of uncertainty, its management through scenario planning and the relevance for libraries.
