The evolution, dynamic mechanisms and trends of China's marine economic security policy: a bibliometric study based on policy texts from the 1990s to 2025

At present, the gross product of China's marine economy keeps rising, and the contribution rate of the marine economy to national economic growth has also shown a steady increasing trend in the past five years. Affected by the impact of the epidemic in 2020, the gross marine product declined periodically; with the effective prevention and control of the domestic epidemic, China's marine economy achieved a strong recovery in 2021, and the national gross marine product exceeded 9 trillion yuan for the first time. In 2024, the national gross marine product surpassed 10 trillion RMB for the first time, reaching 10,543.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, and its contribution rate to national economic growth was 0.4% points. In 2025, the total scale of the marine economy reached a new level, and the driving effect of the economy remained stable continuously. Overall, from 2020 to 2025, the scale of the marine economy continued to expand, its supporting role in the national economy was steadily enhanced, and the development advanced steadily toward the high-quality direction empowered by scientific and technological innovation, optimized industrial structure, deep-sea orientation, green development and low-carbon transformation.

The marine economy constitutes the foundation and core of the marine power strategy. The development of the marine economy is of great significance for expanding territorial development space, fostering new economic growth drivers, facilitating the formation of a new pattern of all-round opening-up, stimulating new dynamics and vitality for national economic development, and safeguarding national marine rights and interests. The status of the marine economy in the national economy has been continuously elevated, and it exerts a pivotal guiding effect on the development of key marine industries. The sound and stable development of the marine economy largely determines the health and security level of the national economy. Concerns regarding national economic security and overall national security have been explicitly elaborated in the Report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, which for the first time put forward the important ideology of “underpinning the new development pattern with a new security paradigm”.

It is evident that marine economic security serves not only as the fundamental prerequisite for guaranteeing the stable development of the marine economy but also as an indispensable core component for safeguarding national economic security and consolidating the overall national security system. From the perspective of policy change theory and policy change paradigms, this thesis selects 63 marine economic security-related policies issued from the 1990s to the present, explores the evolution laws of China's marine economic security policies, deduces the driving forces behind such policy changes, and analyzes the future evolution trends of relevant policies. Adopting word frequency analysis and social network analysis as research methods, this thesis conducts quantitative measurements on policy hotspots and core focuses in different stages, characterizes the evolutionary process of China's marine economic security policies since the entry into force of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea in China, and provides references for China to formulate subsequent marine economic security policies and optimize the domestic governance system for marine economic security.

Foreign research on policy change started at an early stage, yielding fruitful achievements in conceptual definition. Lindblom put forward the theory of incrementalism, arguing that policy change is a product of political games and program conflicts (Lindblom, 1998). On this basis, Brewer et al. (1983) suggested that policy change is a continuous and circular process, in which current policies evolve from the adjustment and improvement of previous ones, specifically manifested in three forms: the introduction of new policies, policy revision, and major policy transformation (Brewer and DeLeon, 1983). Anderson held a different view, defining policy change as a process of substitution between old and new policies, including the revision, expiration of existing policies and the implementation of new ones, and classifying it into four patterns: policy innovation, continuation, maintenance and termination (Anderson, 1990). In the study of driving forces for policy change, Colin pointed out that in addition to political and social conflicts, policy learning is also a key factor promoting policy iteration (Bennett and Howlett, 1992). Frank R B et al. proposed the punctuated-equilibrium model, emphasizing that policy change results from the game of multiple stakeholders (Baumgartner and Jones, 1993). In the 1980s, Paul A. Sabatier developed the advocacy coalition framework, which takes the policy belief system as the core and holds that policy-oriented learning determines the fundamental nature of policy change (Sabatier, 2004). In addition, the institutional rational choice model, the multiple streams theory and other frameworks also provide important support for explaining the driving forces of policy change.

Domestic research on policy change has mainly focused on theoretical introduction, integrative innovation, and localized application. Chen Tan (2006) systematically elaborated the three stages of public policy change: policy failure, policy innovation, and policy equilibrium (Chen, 2006). Luo and Mao (2017) systematically compared the Advocacy Coalition Framework, Multiple Streams Theory, and Punctuated–Equilibrium Theory, revealing the complementarity of core elements such as focusing events and ideational change, while emphasizing the influence of institutional context on theoretical applicability (Luo and Mao, 2017). Wang and Ma (2025) argue that policies serve as a vital carrier of governance. A review of relevant literature reveals that domestic research focuses on the driving forces, paths, mechanisms and effects of policy change, while foreign studies predominantly explore the impacts of global challenges on policy evolution. They further point out that constructing theories and models of policy change tailored to China's national conditions represents the frontier of domestic research, and addressing global challenges such as climate change via policy adjustments constitutes the cutting-edge direction of international research on policy change (Wang and Ma, 2025).

In terms of empirical research, various theoretical frameworks have been widely applied to analyze policy change across different fields. In the education sector, Zhang et al. (2024) adopted the punctuated–equilibrium theory to examine the industry-education integration policy in vocational education, identifying institutional environment and values as the core driving forces (Zhang et al., 2024). Shi and Yu (2024) and Dai et al. (2025) explored policy changes in higher education and integrated clinical medicine training by using the punctuated–equilibrium theory and the multiple streams theory respectively (Shi and Yu, 2024) (Dai et al., 2025). Lin (2025) used a revised punctuated–equilibrium framework to reveal punctuated factors hidden within long-term equilibrium (Lin, 2025). Li and Xiao (2025) extended this theory to the field of global governance and sorted out the policy trajectory of China's participation in global governance (Li and Xiao, 2025). Scholars including Wan and Wang (2020), Wang and He (2021), Zhao et al. (2025) and Sun et al. (2025) introduced perspectives such as policy learning, policy experimentation, and attention allocation, further expanding the research scope of policy change (Wan and Wang, 2020) (Wang and He, 2021) (Zhao et al., 2025) (Sun et al., 2025).

Regarding research methods, techniques such as quantitative policy document analysis and text mining have significantly improved the scientificity and reproducibility of relevant studies. Li et al. (2024) conducted a quantitative analysis of flexible employment policies through Python-based text mining, divided the stages of policy change, and constructed a corresponding model (Li et al., 2024). Huang and Li (2018) revealed the mechanism through which online public opinion drives the change of ride-hailing regulation policies based on the multiple streams theory (Huang and Li, 2018).

Overall, domestic research on policy change has gradually shifted from simply introducing and verifying Western theories to a multidimensional development path that integrates theoretical synthesis, methodological innovation, and deep embedding in local contexts. This has provided solid theoretical support and empirical references for explaining the inherent logic of policy evolution under the institutional background with Chinese characteristics.

Foreign scholars' research on marine economic security originated from concerns over the overall importance of marine security. A representative work is that by Park et al. (2010), who pointed out that as a country with high dependence on foreign trade, South Korea's national development and security rely heavily on marine security. Therefore, it is essential to strengthen marine security safeguards to ensure the steady development of the marine economy. This view laid a foundation for subsequent research on specific fields of marine economic security (Park and Ko, 2010). Since then, the focus of foreign academic research has gradually shifted to detailed subfields of the marine economy, producing highly targeted findings. Studies have mainly concentrated on three core areas: marine transportation, marine fisheries, and maritime security, providing rich practical perspectives for research on marine economic security.

In the field of marine transportation, scholars such as Muhdar Ahmad (2022) adopted a mixed-method approach combining quantitative and qualitative analysis to systematically examine the impact of marine transport security on Indonesia's economic growth. They also investigated stakeholders' expectations regarding marine transport security and economic growth, providing data support and practical suggestions for Indonesia to optimize marine transport safety management and promote high-quality development of the marine economy (Ahmad et al., 2022). In marine fisheries, research has focused on the relationship between sustainable fishery development and food security. Shamsuzzaman Md. Mostafa et al. (2017), addressing severe threats to the sustainability of Bangladesh's marine fisheries, argued that it is necessary to clarify the current status and future potential of marine fishery resources, and on this basis formulate comprehensive plans for resource conservation, management, and exploitation to resolve development dilemmas and safeguard economic security in the marine fishery sector (Mostafa et al., 2017). Lluch-Cota et al. (2023) further prioritized food security over other benefits derived from marine fisheries and proposed implementing a climate-responsive ecosystem-based approach in fisheries management. This approach balances fishery resource protection and food security, enriching the research connotation of economic security in marine fisheries (Lluch-Cota et al., 2023). In maritime security, Dirham et al. (2022) systematically reviewed international conventions and national laws and regulations related to maritime security, conducted an in-depth analysis of Indonesia's institutional arrangements for maritime security, identified deficiencies in the current institutional system, and put forward improvement proposals. Their study provides theoretical and practical references for enhancing Indonesia's maritime security and ensuring the orderly development of the marine economy (Dirham et al., 2022).

Compared with foreign research, Chinese scholars started relatively late in the study of marine economic security, which began in the early 21st century and has gradually evolved from conceptual definition and theoretical construction to practical application and multi-dimensional expansion. Yang (2006) first put forward the core concept of marine economic security, clarifying its important position in the overall national security system and pointing out the direction for relevant domestic research (Yang, 2006). In the same year, based on the theory of sustainable development of marine industries, Yu (2006) constructed a theoretical system of marine industrial security, covering its influencing factors, classification research and evaluation index system (Yu, 2006). Although the term “marine economic security” was not directly used, the security research on marine industries, as the core component of the marine economy, provided important support and deepened academic attention to marine economic security in China.

In 2008, Liu Ming (2008) clearly defined the core connotation of marine economic security for the first time, systematically analyzed the state of China's marine economic security at that time, and put forward targeted countermeasures to safeguard it. This marked that the research on marine economic security in China entered a systematic and refined stage, laying a solid theoretical foundation for subsequent studies (Liu, 2008). Since then, the focus of domestic scholars has gradually expanded: on the one hand, they have conducted in-depth research on specific fields such as marine ecological security; on the other hand, they have shifted to constructing evaluation systems and risk early-warning mechanisms for marine economic security, promoting the extension of research to practical application.

In recent years, with the rapid development of the marine economy and the country's increasing emphasis on marine security, research on China's marine economic security has expanded significantly in theoretical depth, methodological innovation and policy relevance, producing a series of representative achievements. Guan Hongjun and Ni Ran (2024) constructed a spatial-temporal analytical framework for the coordinated development of high-quality marine economic growth and marine ecological security based on panel data from China's three major marine economic zones. Their empirical analysis revealed the heterogeneous characteristics and evolutionary trends of regional coordination levels, providing theoretical guidance and practical pathways for coordinating regional marine economic development and ecological security (Guan and Ni, 2024). From the perspective of marine resources, Wang et al. (2025) broke through the limitations of traditional research and systematically established a theoretical framework for marine economic security, emphasizing the fundamental roles of resource endowment, resource development and resource security, thus enriching the theoretical system of marine economic security (Wang et al., 2025). In terms of evaluation systems and obstacle diagnosis, Wang (2023) built a comprehensive scientific evaluation index system for marine economic security from the perspective of the marine lifeline system. Using an obstacle factor diagnosis model, he accurately identified key constraints affecting China's marine economic security, providing data support for targeted improvements in marine economic security governance (Wang, 2023). Against the backdrop of emerging new quality productive forces, Liu and Sun (2025) explored the synergistic relationship between high-quality marine economic development and high-level security. They argued that new quality productive forces, through technological innovation and optimized factor allocation, offer new theoretical interpretations and practical approaches for balancing marine economic development and security, broadening the research perspective of marine economic security (Liu and Sun, 2025).

Meanwhile, research on the relationship between marine economic security and the evolution of macro policies has gradually become an important topic in domestic academia, providing valuable references for optimizing and improving marine economic security policies. Wang (2022) systematically reviewed the historical evolution of the Communist Party of China's marine economic policies since the founding of the People's Republic of China, clearly revealing the inherent logic of the shift from a “resource development–oriented” approach to “coordinating development and security.” This provides a profound historical perspective for understanding the changing role of marine economic security in the national policy system and offers historical lessons for the formulation and adjustment of future marine economic security policies (Wang, 2022). In terms of practical application, scholars such as Jin and Chen (2025) and Sun et al. (2025) conducted in-depth discussions on building marine economic security barriers in coastal regions from a local development perspective. They emphasized that coastal areas, as the frontline of national marine economic security, play a critical role in risk prevention, resource protection, and industrial development, and put forward targeted suggestions including policy coordination, risk prevention, and emergency management, promoting the deep integration of marine economic security research with local practice (Jin and Chen, 2025–12) (Sun, 2025–12). Overall, China's research on marine economic security has gradually moved beyond the initial stage of conceptual definition and indicator construction to a mature stage featuring multi-dimensional coordination, regional difference analysis, and policy mechanism embedding. With increasingly diverse research methods and expanding perspectives, it has laid a solid academic foundation for deepening the theory and optimizing policies related to marine economic security.

Based on existing literature and the evolution of policies and regulations related to the marine economy, the core connotation of marine economic security can be clearly defined: a stable state that promotes coordinated marine industrial structure, rational resource allocation, and complete industrial chains, so as to ensure the steady and sound operation of the national marine economy. With the rapid growth of the marine economy, threats to marine economic security have become increasingly complex. Attention can no longer be limited to the optimization of the internal structure of the marine economy. Its connotation has been further expanded to include challenges from multiple external factors: inadequate and unsustainable coordination between marine resource utilization and economic growth, continuing deterioration of the marine ecological environment, expansion of marine terrorist forces, growing volatility in the global economy, and global climate change.

Accordingly, in light of profound changes in domestic and international political and economic situations, the scope of marine economic security should also be extended. It not only covers traditional areas such as marine industrial security and marine transportation security, but also includes marine ecological and resource security, marine technological security, as well as marine administrative governance capacity, marine diplomatic capacity, and marine military security. Research focusing merely on the marine economy itself can no longer meet the needs of marine economic security in the new era. All factors that may affect the sound, stable and sustainable development of the marine economy should be incorporated into the definition of marine economic security. It follows that this paper makes marginal contributions in three main aspects. First, it achieves innovation in the time dimension. This study systematically collates 63 policy documents spanning from the 1990s to 2025 and establishes a long-term and multi-level dataset on marine economic security policies, which addresses the limitations of short research periods and fragmented samples in existing literature. Second, it innovates in stage division and quantitative characterization. Based on key policy milestones, the policies are divided into three phases. By adopting word frequency analysis and social network analysis, this paper identifies core topics, governance priorities and evolutionary disparities across phases, making up for the deficiencies of traditional qualitative analysis. Third, it offers new insights into the driving mechanism. From the three perspectives of international context, national strategy and industrial endogenous demand, this paper elaborates the internal and external driving logic behind policy changes, constructs a more comprehensive analytical framework for the evolution of marine economic security policies, and further enriches relevant theoretical research.

Based on the above summary of the connotation of marine economic security and the progressive deepening of academic understanding, this paper divides the evolution of China's marine economic security policies into three stages: the initial stage (1990s–early 2000s), the rapid development stage (early 2000s–2010), and the maturing stage (2011–present). To thoroughly analyze the evolutionary patterns and driving forces of China's marine economic security policies, this study adopts word frequency analysis combined with social network mapping to systematically examine policies in different stages. It interprets the core characteristics of each period, summarizes the evolutionary laws and key driving forces, and predicts future trends. The aim is to provide theoretical and practical guidance for the formulation and optimization of marine economic security policies in China, and to support the improvement of the national marine economic security system and the high-quality development of the marine economy.

Research on the theories relevant to marine economic security in China started relatively late. At present, policies pertaining to marine economic security are mainly embodied in the marine economic security-related components within marine security policies and marine economic policies. All data in this paper are sourced from the authoritative policy database Peking University Magic Weapon V6.0, with the retrieval time span ranging from 1990s to 2025. To ensure the scientificity and standardization of samples, this paper formulates unified retrieval and screening criteria. The core search keywords include marine economic security, marine governance, marine ecological protection, marine industrial security, marine resource development, marine security guarantee and others. The inclusion criteria cover official and publicly effective normative policy documents at national and provincial levels, such as laws, regulations, bylaws, plans, guidelines and measures. Exclusion criteria include informal documents such as official replies, notices and announcements, duplicate policies, and policy texts with no direct relevance to marine economic security. After multiple rounds of screening, deduplication and verification, a total of 63 valid policy samples are finally confirmed.

To improve the accuracy and reproducibility of textual measurement, this paper adopts unified rules for text preprocessing. Word segmentation is conducted by applying ROST CM6 software together with a self-defined professional dictionary for the marine field. A dedicated stop word list is established to eliminate meaningless function words, general auxiliary words and frequently-used invalid policy vocabularies. Synonyms and similar expressions are standardized, such as unifying homogeneous terms including “marine economic guarantee/marine economic security”, so as to avoid semantic deviation. Quantitative thresholds are set: the word frequency threshold is no less than 6, and the correlation threshold of co-occurrence network is no less than 1.

Word frequency analysis enables the statistics on the occurrence frequency of keywords that reveal the core content of documents. When a certain keyword appears repeatedly in a research field, it can reflect the research priorities and hotspots in that field (Zhang and Wang, 2014). This thesis adopts the ROST CM6 software to analyze the keywords of policy texts, and generates word cloud diagrams based on high-frequency keywords, so as to reflect the priorities and hot issues of policy texts at each stage.

To clearly distinguish general policy expressions from targeted policy orientations, this study treats highly frequent generic terms such as marine, development, administration and construction merely as contextual background. Instead, it identifies policy priorities primarily by integrating specific keywords including marine pollution, marine governance and ecological protection with the actual policy context.

Social network analysis originates from the field of social sciences, which examines the structure of social systems based on the relationships among network members rather than the actual contributions of individual members (Otte and Rousseau, 2002). From the perspective of social network analysis, keywords act as individual nodes within the network, and their co-occurrence represents direct connections between these nodes. The advantage of applying this method lies in its ability to quantitatively determine the position of a specific keyword within the network and quantitatively reflect the interrelationships between different keywords (Wei, 2009). This thesis employs ROST CM6 to conduct social network analysis on China's marine economic security policies, and uses NetDraw to visualize the keyword co-occurrence network maps of these policies, so as to explore the research focuses of China's marine economic security policies within a given period.

Combined with the foregoing literature review and quantitative analysis of policy texts, China's marine economic security policies present distinct phased evolutionary characteristics. Taking the issuance of landmark policies, shifts in governance priorities and upgrading of institutional systems as core division criteria, this paper identifies the early 2000s and 2011 as key turning points. Marked by the implementation of the revised Marine Environmental Protection Law (2000) and the Sea Area Use Administration Law (2002) in the early 2000s, marine development and administration were fully brought under the rule of law, and policy priorities shifted from single pollution control to equal emphasis on development and conservation. Marked by the release of the 12th Five-Year Plan for National Marine Economic Development in 2011, the marine power strategy was fully implemented, and the governance paradigm was upgraded to systematic governance that coordinates ecological, industrial, technological and rights-based security. Accordingly, starting from 1990s, this paper divides China's marine economic security policies from 1990s to 2025 into three stages:

Since the 1990s, China's marine economy has witnessed rapid development, gradually evolving into a critical component of the national economy and an emerging field driving regional economic growth. Synchronous with the rapid advancement of the marine economy, relevant policies and regulations pertaining to marine economic security have been successively enacted and implemented. Initiated by the Interim Provisions on the Administration of the Use of State Sea Areas issued in 1993, this marked the phase where sea area utilization was incorporated into comprehensive management while balancing the development of the marine economy. In 1996, China ratified and acceded to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, signifying that marine security issues were officially brought to national attention, as the state strived to secure a more favorable external security environment for the development of the marine economy. In the same year, the State Oceanic Administration formulated and released China Ocean Agenda 21, which served as the guiding document and action program for China's marine undertakings during the Ninth Five-Year Plan period and the early 21st century. With the sustainable development and protection of marine resources as the core focus, this document put forward strategic principles for China's marine undertakings via a comprehensive analysis of the opportunities and challenges confronted in the development of China's maritime-related sectors. In May 1998, the State Council Information Office issued The Development of China's Marine Programs, putting forward the marine economic policy of “rational development and utilization of marine resources”. At this stage, the Chinese government first placed issues concerning maritime undertakings on the agenda and formulated corresponding strategic measures, yet targeted policies for boosting marine economic development and resolving marine economic security issues had not yet been established. A total of 13 policies related to China's marine economic security were collected in this stage, and the extracted high-frequency keywords are presented in Table 1 in descending order of occurrence frequency.

Following the social network analysis conducted via ROST CM6, the keyword co-occurrence network diagram is generated (Figure 1).

Based on the aforementioned word frequency analysis and social network analysis, China's marine economic security policies from the 1990s to the early 21st century exhibit the following characteristics:

The results of word frequency analysis indicate that keywords including ocean, insurance, compensation, contract, pollution, and marine environment appear at high frequencies. This demonstrates that these terms are frequently mentioned in the 13 policy documents, reflecting that the common focuses of these policies are issues such as marine environment, pollution, relevant insurance and pollution compensation. The emphasis on marine environmental issues in relevant policies is closely associated with the social context at that time. During this period, China's marine economy was in the initial development stage, and extensive development modes caused severe damage to China's marine environment. The Chinese government actively explored approaches to protect the marine environment and issued corresponding policies, including the Marine Environmental Protection Law of the People's Republic of China, Regulations on the Administration of Prevention of Environmental Pollution from Ship Dismantling, Regulations on the Administration of Prevention and Control of Marine Environmental Pollution and Damage from Land-Based Pollutants, and Measures for the Implementation of the Regulations on the Administration of Marine Dumping. The intensive focus on pollution compensation, relevant insurance and contract issues in these policies reveals that marine economic security policies at this stage mainly targeted specific issues such as pollution prevention arising from marine economic activities. Moreover, most of China's policies for marine environmental protection implemented at this stage were ex post control measures.

From the perspective of social network analysis, the overall network density in this stage is relatively low, and the node distribution presents a core-periphery structure. Keywords such as marine, state, protection, pollution and sea area enjoy the highest degree centrality and serve as the core nodes of the network, while peripheral nodes are mostly terms in segmented business fields including insurance, contract, aquaculture and offshore petroleum. Quantitatively, the low network density indicates fragmented policy issues, with core topics mainly focusing on marine pollution control, ecological protection and sea area administration. A systematic governance framework has not yet taken shape, which is consistent with the stage feature centered on pollution governance and ex post compensation.

According to the results of social network analysis, policy hotspots during this period mainly concentrated on issues such as pollution prevention, environmental protection, and marine environmental protection, with these keywords occupying the central position in the network. This manifests that relevant policies were centered on marine environmental protection and were closely linked with other keywords, reflecting that the state promptly followed up with a series of associated policies after the promulgation of the Marine Environmental Protection Law of the People's Republic of China. The state further refined and supplemented the provisions related to marine environmental protection and gradually established a targeted policy framework for marine environmental governance. The relatively single central keywords in this period indicate that China had already developed an awareness of marine economic security at this stage, yet its focus was merely confined to pollution prevention and relevant compensation measures, with limited involvement in other types of marine economic security issues. The enactment of the Marine Environmental Protection Law of the People's Republic of China marked the government's increasing attention to marine environmental problems, with formal laws issued to govern marine environmental issues, ushering marine environmental governance into a law-based era. Correspondingly, ecological protection red lines were delineated for marine ecological function zones, ecologically sensitive and fragile sea areas, and relevant regulations were formulated for marine production, marine transportation, marine pollution control and other related fields. The Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Prevention of Environmental Pollution from Ship Dismantling issued in 1988 mainly governed ship dismantling activities onshore and on water, stipulating relevant requirements for the whole process before, during and after ship dismantling. In 1990, the Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Prevention and Control of Marine Environmental Pollution and Damage Caused by Land-based Pollutants and the Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Prevention and Control of Marine Environmental Pollution and Damage Caused by Coastal Construction Projects were promulgated respectively. These two regulations targeted pollution prevention and control for land-based pollutants and coastal engineering construction projects separately, aiming to reduce the damage to the marine environment caused by human economic activities and safeguard marine economic security.

During this period, the policy objective of the Chinese government was mainly to create a secure environment for the rapid and sound development of the marine economy, thereby implementing targeted marine environmental protection measures. On the one hand, the promulgation of China's marine economic policies mainly took specific events as the starting point, focusing on micro fields such as pollution prevention and control in land-based projects, petroleum industry, waste dumping and other sectors. On the other hand, systematic policies were relatively scarce at this stage, and in-depth elaborations on marine economic security from a macro perspective were rarely seen. Meanwhile, the development, utilization and protection of marine resources in China mainly involved fields including marine environment, marine ecology, marine science and technology, marine engineering and marine exploration. The concepts of integrated management, cooperation and coordination had also emerged at that time, which reflected that a series of problems arising from the deepening development and utilization of marine resources had become increasingly prominent. Accordingly, there was an urgent demand for the promulgation and implementation of targeted and systematic policies and regulations that matched the development progress and guaranteed marine economic security.

Since the beginning of the 21st century, human intensity of marine exploitation has continuously increased, which has rendered increasingly prominent environmental problems in marine areas and caused severe deterioration of ecological conditions in partial sea regions. Meanwhile, the marine economy itself has confronted multiple pressures including industrial restructuring and overcapacity. The demand for improving the quality of marine economic development has surpassed the pursuit of development speed, and the connotation of scientific and sustainable development for the marine economy has become more comprehensive. Accordingly, the awareness of marine economic security has been fully reflected in marine economic policies for the first time.

In 2003, the Chinese government officially put forward the concept of “marine economy” for the first time in the National Program for Marine Economic Development, defining the marine economy as the integration of various marine industries and relevant economic activities involving the development and utilization of marine resources. The elaborations on relevant problems arising in the development of the marine economy included in this document reflect concerns over the sustainable and sound development of the marine economy, which constitutes a vital part of the connotation of marine economic security. Furthermore, this program incorporated contents closely relevant to marine economic security as follows: the development of the marine economy lacked macroscopic guidance, coordination and planning, and the management system for marine resource development was imperfect; structural contradictions in marine industries were prominent, traditional marine industries were still at the extensive development stage, the overall level of marine science and technology was relatively low, and some emerging marine industries had not yet reached a sizable scale; the deteriorating trend of the ecological environment in some sea areas had not been effectively curbed, offshore fishery resources suffered severe damage, and some rare marine species were on the verge of extinction; the development order of some sea areas and island was chaotic, and conflicts over sea use were acute; the degree of marine investigation and exploration was low, and the quantity of important exploitable marine resources was unclear; the infrastructure, technical equipment supporting the development of the marine economy were relatively backward. After the promulgation of the National Program for Marine Economic Development, local governments in coastal regions actively formulated regional marine economic development plans. By the end of 2005, all 11 coastal provinces, municipalities directly under the Central Government and autonomous regions had completed the formulation of provincial-level marine economic development plans, which were implemented in the form of official documents issued by provincial Party committees and provincial people's governments.

In the meantime, a series of laws had been enacted concerning the protection of marine ecological security, the administration of sea area use, marine disaster prevention and mitigation and other relevant fields, including the Marine Environmental Protection Law of the People's Republic of China (2000), the Law of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of the Use of Sea Areas (2002), and the Opinions on Strengthening Marine Disaster Prevention issued by the State Oceanic Administration (2005). At this stage, various marine economic activities were guaranteed by more sufficient policies and regulations, and the awareness of marine economic security took root among the public. Moreover, China's marine economic policies during this period were gradually elevated to the level of national strategic planning. To address issues related to marine economic security, the government issued a series of policies to adapt to the development needs of the marine economy and implement macroeconomic regulation and control. For instance, the National Marine Economy Development Plan (2008), as the first overall plan in the marine field since the founding of the People's Republic of China, has played a crucial role in promoting the comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable development of national marine undertakings. The 11th Five-Year Plan for National Fishery Development highlighted the prominent problems and challenges existing in China's fishery economic development during the 10th Five-Year Plan period, and pointed out that the 11th Five-Year Plan period was a critical stage for advancing the transformation of fishery growth modes.

A total of 19 policies concerning China's marine economic security were collected at this stage, and the extracted high-frequency keywords are presented in Table 2 in descending order of occurrence frequency.

After conducting social network analysis via ROST CM6, the keyword social network analysis diagram is plotted (Figure 2).

Based on the above word frequency analysis and social network analysis, China's marine economic security policies from the early 21st century to 2010 exhibit the following characteristics:

The results of word frequency analysis show that keywords such as ocean, fishery, administration and engineering appear at high frequencies, which indicates that these keywords are frequently mentioned in the 19 policy documents, reflecting that the common focus of these policies lies in marine economic activity fields including marine fishery and marine engineering. Among them, the high-frequency occurrence of fishery, aquatic products and breeding demonstrates that numerous problems emerged in China's fishery and aquaculture sectors during this period, posing challenges to the security of economic activities in these fields and prompting China to seek corresponding solutions.

Marine environment remained the core focus during this period. Moreover, the emergence of keywords such as marine environmental monitoring, marine environmental monitoring and evaluation, and early warning indicates that the focus of marine environmental policies shifted to ex ante monitoring and early warning as well as ex post evaluation of early warning and monitoring effects. The system construction for marine environmental security has been further improved, and the single ex post control adopted in the previous stage has been transformed into an integrated model of ex ante prevention, in-process intervention and ex post control during this period, further safeguarding the stable operation of marine environment and marine ecological security. In addition, relevant keywords including sea area use and marine functional zoning appear at high frequencies, suggesting that China has strengthened the administration of sea area utilization to protect the legitimate rights and interests of national sea area ownership and sea area use right, promote the rational development and sustainable utilization of sea areas, formulate marine functional zoning in a scientific manner, and implement zoned administration of sea area use in line with local conditions.

The network density rises remarkably in this stage, with closer connections among nodes. Terms including marine, administration, protection, development and economy rank highest in degree centrality and constitute core nodes. The centrality of keywords such as fishery, resources, marine economy and marine environment is markedly enhanced. The predominance of high-centrality nodes concerning administration, protection and environment indicates that policy priorities have shifted from isolated pollution control toward resource exploitation, fishery administration and comprehensive supervision. Multiple policy issues form a synergistic network centering on administration and protection, and the governance structure expands from single-domain governance to multi-dimensional governance.

According to the results of social network analysis, policy hotspots during this period mainly centered on issues such as marine administrative management, marine fishery, and marine environmental protection. The social network analysis map became more complex, with closer correlations among various keywords. Meanwhile, new management fields emerged, including marine search and rescue, marine disasters, marine fishery, and marine administration, which indicates that attention to marine economic security was elevated at this stage, and China's awareness of safeguarding marine economic security was strengthened. That is to say, the development of the marine economy should not only pursue rapid growth, but more importantly, strive for high-quality development. In the field of marine administrative management, a series of relevant policies were issued during this period, such as the Measures for the Implementation of Marine Administrative Penalties, the Regulations on the Implementation of Administrative Penalties by the Customs of the People's Republic of China, the Provisions on marine Law Enforcement by Public Security Organs, the Provisions on the Supervision of Marine Administrative Law Enforcement, and the Measures for the Implementation of Marine Environmental Protection Law Enforcement by China Marine Surveillance. These policies formulated relevant norms for marine administrative penalties and marine law enforcement. This reflects that since the promulgation of the Administrative Penalty Law of the People's Republic of China in 1996, the establishment and implementation of administrative penalties have been standardized at the marine level, so as to ensure and supervise the effective performance of marine administrative management by marine administrative organs, safeguard public interests and social order, and protect the legitimate rights and interests of citizens, legal persons and other organizations. In terms of maintaining marine fishery security, the 11th Five-Year Plan for National Fishery Development (2006–2010) was issued in 2006. This plan systematically analyzed the opportunities and challenges faced by China's fishery industry during the 11th Five-Year Plan period, formulated major tasks and development goals, and proposed the construction of key ocean fishery projects. Adhering to resource conservation, realizing sustainable and comprehensive development, rationally allocating resources, and preventing the depletion of marine resources and fishery resources became the core priorities of fishery development at this stage.

During this period, the policy objective of the Chinese government was to address the severe challenges confronting marine fisheries, aquaculture and the marine environment. As the main policy actor, the government vigorously carried out administrative law enforcement, and launched ex ante preventive measures such as monitoring and early warning for marine economic security, striving to safeguard the security of the marine economy. Meanwhile, a more distinct and critical feature at this stage was that terms including “marine economy” and “marine economic development” were explicitly put forward and defined, alongside the establishment of monitoring and prevention mechanisms for relevant security issues. This indicates that the state began to focus on marine economic security from a more macroscopic strategic perspective, balancing the security of specific marine economic activities at the micro level and the overall security of the marine economy at the macro strategic level.

In 2011, the 12th Five-Year Plan for National Marine Economic Development was issued, which marked the first time that China formulated a national marine economic development plan in accordance with the purpose of the current overall national economic plan, and also represented a new round of comprehensive national plan for marine economy launched again after 2003. This plan elaborated on the relevant issues confronting marine economic security from both international and domestic perspectives. From the perspective of the international environment, affected by the global financial crisis, there were still numerous uncertainties in external economic development and international market demand, and protectionism in various forms was on the rise; with the intensifying competition for energy and resources, the scramble for rights and interests surrounding marine resources would become increasingly fierce; regional frictions and conflicts occurred frequently, and threats faced by major international marine routes in the field of non-traditional security were becoming increasingly severe; constraints of the marine ecological environment were increasingly prominent, and problems such as aggravated impacts of global climate change and marine disasters grew more acute. All these factors posed severe challenges to the safe and sound development of China's marine economy. From the perspective of the domestic environment, the main threats to marine economic security still stemmed from the prominent problems of unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable development of the marine economy. The extensive growth mode had not been fundamentally transformed, the industrial structure and layout were not fully rational, the capabilities of independent innovation and transformation of technological achievements were weak, constraints of resources and ecological environment were intensifying, and the institutional mechanisms guaranteeing development were still imperfect. These factors continued to restrict the sustainable and healthy development of China's marine economy.

Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the construction of a marine power has become the strategic goal of China's marine economic development. China has shifted from developing and utilizing the ocean to striving for the goal of building a strong country by relying on the ocean, which reflects the rapid response of the Chinese government to the global situation in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. During this period, the Chinese government paid greater attention to the comprehensive development prospect of the ocean and made unremitting efforts toward the goal of building a marine power. The 12th Five-Year Plan for National Marine Undertaking Development, approved by the State Council in 2013, specified the concrete problems faced by China's marine undertakings, and effectively safeguarding marine economic security became a core principle. The 13th Five-Year Plan for National Marine Economic Development, approved in 2017, pointed out that the global economy remained in a period of profound adjustment, with no escape from the downturn and stil l sluggish international market demand. Meanwhile, the complex and volatile geopolitical relations brought numerous uncertainties to China's outward investment in marine economy-related sectors and the expansion of marine economic development space. China's economic development has entered a new normal. Problems including unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable marine economic development still persist; the layout of marine economic development needs to be optimized; pressure on the adjustment, transformation and upgrading of marine industrial structure has intensified; overcapacity exists in some marine industries; the capabilities of independent innovation and transformation of technological achievements need to be improved; the carrying pressure on the marine ecological environment keeps mounting with its degradation; land-sea coordinated conservation needs to be strengthened; risks of marine disasters and work safety are becoming increasingly prominent; and the institutional mechanisms guaranteeing marine economic development are still inadequate. All these factors continue to restrict the sustainable and sound development of China's marine economy.

Compared with the marine economic security issues mentioned in the 12th Five-Year Plan for National Marine Economic Development, problems such as irrational marine industrial layout and structure, marine ecological degradation and insufficient independent innovation have not been resolved, and even tend to deteriorate, indicating that China still has a long way to go in addressing marine economic security issues. In response, the Ministry of Agriculture of China issued the Construction Plan for National Marine Ranch Demonstration Zones (2017–2025), seeking solutions to reconcile the contradiction between the sustainable utilization of marine fishery resources and ecological environment protection. This is an important exploration to transform the development mode of marine fishery, as well as a critical measure to boost marine economic development and marine ecological civilization construction. It contributes to adjusting the fishery industrial structure, realizing the transformation and upgrading of fishery, conserving marine living resources, and improving the ecological environment of sea areas.

Based on the long-term requirements for high-quality development and security guarantee of the marine economy, the 14th Five-Year Plan for Marine Economic Development (Guo Han (2021) No. 131) approved by the State Council in 2021 takes building a modern marine industrial system, strengthening marine scientific and technological innovation, and coordinating development and security as its core objectives. It deepens land-sea integrated management, promotes marine ecological protection and restoration, improves the quality, efficiency and risk resistance capacity of the marine economy, and consolidates the fundamental foundation for marine economic security.

A total of 31 policies related to China's marine economic security were collected at this stage, and the extracted high-frequency keywords are listed in Table 3 in descending order of frequency.

After conducting social network analysis via ROST CM6, the keyword social network analysis diagram is generated (Figure 3).

Based on the above word frequency analysis and social network analysis, China’s marine economic security policies from 2011 to the present exhibit the following characteristics.

The results of word frequency analysis show that keywords such as ocean, construction, development and administration appear at high frequencies, with a greater focus on the perspective of macro-level management. This indicates that during this period, the attention and governance for marine economic security were no longer confined to a single perspective, but instead targeted core issues of marine economic security from a holistic standpoint. Similar to the previous stage, terms related to marine environment and fishery still rank among high-frequency keywords, demonstrating that addressing issues concerning environmental protection and fishery economy remained a top priority of government work at this stage. In contrast to the preceding period, this stage put forward the concept of “building a marine power” and strengthened the ideology of “invigorating the ocean through science and technology”. The emergence of keywords including informatization and digitization reflects that China's policies have begun to emphasize the correlation among science and technology, innovation and talents, vigorously promote the construction of digital ocean and information ocean, and strive to provide technical support for safeguarding China's marine economic security.

The appearance of keywords such as land-sea coordination indicates that the state has gradually expanded its scope of attention to the development of marine economy and marine economic security, with a progressively elevated strategic perspective. To develop the marine economy, it is necessary to plan regional development, strengthen the relevance and interaction between land and sea development, emphasize complementary resource advantages and overall coordination, so as to boost the sound development of the marine economy and further ensure the sustainable stability of marine economic security.

The network density reaches its peak in this stage, and the network structure becomes more balanced. Core nodes such as marine, development, resources, protection and administration gain more prominent centrality advantages, while the centrality of emerging nodes including science and technology, innovation, risks, marine industries and marine economic development increases significantly. Quantitative indicators reflect higher network connectivity and stronger dominant influence of core nodes over the whole network. It manifests that policy issues have formed a systematic network centered on marine economic development, which takes into account ecological conservation, resource utilization, scientific and technological innovation as well as risk prevention and control. This is highly consistent with the stage characteristic of coordinated governance covering ecology, industry, science and technology, and rights and interests security.

According to the results of social network analysis, policy hotspots during this period focused on fields including marine ecology and marine environmental monitoring. The core policy hotspot fields did not differ significantly from those in the previous stage, whereas policy contents in each field were further expanded. In the field of marine ecology, the State Oceanic Administration issued the Opinions on Carrying out the Construction of Marine Ecological Civilization Demonstration Zones in 2012, which strengthened the concept of marine ecological protection and construction, and safeguarded marine ecological security. In the same year, the promulgation of the Interim Measures for the Construction and Management of Marine Ecological Civilization Demonstration Zones and the Index System for the Construction of Marine Ecological Civilization Demonstration Zones (Trial) marked the further improvement of the construction of marine ecological civilization demonstration zones, with a more rational policy structure, guiding marine ecological protection towards a green, sound and secure development path.

In 2018, the State Council issued the Notice on Strengthening Coastal Wetland Protection and Strictly Controlling Reclamation. As an important part of marine ecological construction, coastal wetland protection became a key focus of policies at this stage. While enjoying the ecological benefits brought by coastal wetlands, it is also necessary to carry out ecological protection and rational development of such wetlands, so as to further safeguard marine economic security. In the field of marine environmental monitoring, great emphasis was placed on dynamic monitoring of the marine ecological environment, environmental assessment, emergency management, risk prevention and control and other related issues during this period, reflecting the forward-looking nature of China's marine economic security policies. Given the suddenness and uncontrollability of marine economic security risks, three links are indispensable: ex ante monitoring to grasp the regularity and sensitivity of marine systems, in-process emergency response to crises, and ex post control and evaluation to accumulate experience.

During this period, the development of China's marine economy has shifted from emphasizing scale and speed to pursuing high-quality development. The policy objective of the Chinese government has accordingly transformed into the comprehensive and integrated utilization of various resources, striving to boost the high-quality development of the marine economy and provide solid security support for the realization of the strategic goal of building a marine power. On the basis of previous policies, policies at this stage have continued to expand and deepen relevant micro-fields, while emphasizing the overall governance of the marine economy from the dimension of macro management to ensure the stable operation of the marine economy.

From the evolutionary analysis of the three stages of China's marine economic security policies, it can be concluded that the development of China's marine economy has undergone a progressive leap: from prioritizing the exploitation and utilization of marine resources, to pursuing harmonious coexistence between humans and the sea, and further to advancing the strategic goal of building a marine power. Against this backdrop, policies for safeguarding China's marine economic security have also evolved along distinct paths: elevating from specific sectoral arrangements to national strategic layouts, shifting from single-subject governance to multi-stakeholder collaborative governance, and transforming from ex post compensation and regulation to ex ante risk early warning. Overall, such evolution conforms to the practical demands of marine economic development and presents a progressive and continuously improving trend.

Further analysis based on the policy process theory reveals the inherent logic behind the shifts of policy focuses across different stages. First, the transition from the embryonic stage to the rapid development stage was driven by the promulgation and enforcement of pivotal laws and regulations including the Sea Area Use Administration Law and the revised Marine Environmental Protection Law. This drove policy priorities to shift from isolated marine pollution control toward marine resource exploitation and comprehensive marine governance, which fully embodies the typical feature of overall policy paradigm shifts triggered by critical time points under the punctuated equilibrium theory. Second, throughout the rapid development phase, governance instruments have been increasingly diversified, evolving beyond traditional administrative penalties into multi-form mechanisms such as top-level planning guidance and regular administrative supervision. The continuous combination of diverse policy tools and expanding governance coverage reflect the incremental adjustment characteristics of incrementalism. Third, in the mature policy stage, guided by the top-level strategy of building a marine power, multiple governance agendas including marine ecological conservation, marine industrial advancement and marine technological innovation have achieved coordinated development. Relevant marine administrative authorities and governance sectors have reached consistent developmental philosophies and built consensus around the systematic governance of marine economic security, which is highly in line with the core logic of the advocacy coalition framework that realizes multi-party policy coordination based on shared beliefs.

On this basis, this paper further explores the in-depth logic of the evolution of China's marine economic security policies from three fundamental dimensions of public policy analysis: policy philosophy, policy structure and policy process.

Public policy philosophy refers to the perceptions, viewpoints and value beliefs for addressing a certain policy issue, which to some extent establishes the direction and objectives of policy implementation, while policy implementation serves as a critical means to carry out the policy philosophy (Xu and Wang, 2013). Initially, when confronting marine economic security issues, the Chinese government mainly approached them from a micro perspective, focusing on specific fields such as transportation, marine dumping and petroleum exploration, and formulated and implemented relevant regulations targeting specific matters including traffic accidents, pollution compensation, as well as development and protection. It was guided by specific micro-level marine economic security problems to explore corresponding solutions for safeguarding marine economic security. This was attributed to the fact that the government's focus in the marine economic sector during this period was primarily placed on developing the marine economy, without attaching high priority to marine economic security issues. As a result, the policy framework for safeguarding marine economic security only targeted specific problems in micro fields and individual industries.

As China's requirements for sustainable and high-quality development of the marine economy continue to rise, issues related to marine economic security have been elevated to an unprecedented level. While continuously improving and deepening policies and regulations concerning marine economic security at the micro level, the Chinese government has stepped up efforts to promote the issuance of relevant policies and regulations for safeguarding China's marine economic security from the macro level. It has carried out strategic planning for the development of the marine economy, provided macro policy support for specific marine economic security issues, and fostered a sound, safe and harmonious environment for the growth of the marine economy.

Public policy structure is generally divided into policy subjects, policy objects, policy environment and other components. A review of all stages in the evolution of China's marine economic security policies reveals that the transformation of its policy structure has witnessed a process of gradual systematization and improvement.

Policy subjects refer to the individuals, groups and organizations that make, implement and supervise policies. The policy subjects of China's marine economic security have evolved from a “single subject” to “multi-stakeholder coordination”. In the early stage, marine economic security policies were mainly issued by the State Council. With the growing threats to marine economic security and the national attention attached to this issue, various government departments, such as the State Oceanic Administration, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the Ministry of Finance, the maritime Safety Administration of the People's Republic of China, and the Ministry of Natural Resources, have formulated policies related to marine economic security in line with their own functions. This reflects the gradual emphasis placed on marine economic security by different departments and sectors, as well as the trend towards diversification of policy subjects.

Meanwhile, forms including public democratic participation, expert hearings, and collaboration with social organizations have been gradually integrated into the policy-making process, further optimizing the multi-stakeholder coordination of policy subjects. As a result, a pattern has taken shape in which multiple subjects and departments jointly promote the construction of the marine economic security policy system.

Policy objects refer to the targets on which policies exert effects. The policy objects of China's marine economic security have evolved from being “simple and scattered” to “diversified and systematic”. At the initial stage of the promulgation of a series of marine economic security policies, their primary purpose was to address specific issues threatening marine economic security, which mainly stemmed from concrete fields such as pollution prevention and control, marine traffic safety maintenance, marine transportation management, and environmental protection. The policy objects in this period, namely the targets of policies, were specific security issues scattered in various fields of marine economic operation.

As China's awareness of marine economic security continues to strengthen, addressing intense conflicts in specific fields in a decentralized manner can hardly maintain the overall secure environment for marine economic operation. Under this premise, policy objects have been expanded to include such issues as risk prevention and control, monitoring and early warning, risk assessment, and invigorating the ocean through science and technology for marine economic security. On the one hand, the implementation of these policies has made the governance targets of policies more systematic; meanwhile, it has elevated the early warning of marine economic security issues to a new level, enabling effective suppression of threats to marine economic security before or at the initial stage of their occurrence, namely “nipping them in the bud”. This has further consolidated the marine economic security security system from a more proactive perspective, reflecting the diversity and comprehensiveness of marine economic security governance.

Policy environment refers to the sum of natural and social conditions that influence or determine the formulation and implementation of policies. China's marine economic security policies have evolved from “loose awareness” to “close attention”. In the initial stage of establishing the marine economic security policy system, China's marine economy was still in its infancy. The social environment had a high tolerance for the adverse impacts arising from marine economic development, and the awareness of actively safeguarding marine economic security was relatively weak.

With China's continuous exploration of high-quality economic development, the necessity of maintaining marine economic security has gradually become more prominent. Driven by the overall social context, China's marine economic security policies have continuously improved their own institutional system, and enhanced the anti-interference capability of marine economic security in an all-round and high-efficiency manner.

In the initial stage of building China's marine economic security policy system, the policy-making logic of Chinese government departments was to remedy losses after the occurrence of marine economic security issues, through measures such as fines, insurance and compensation. Relevant actions carried out based on this logic represented a typical “passive governance”, which was usually characterized by ex post control, meaning administrative law enforcement actions were launched only after problems emerged. Nevertheless, although the government endeavored to maintain the stability of marine economic security via policies, ex post control alone was insufficient to address all marine economic security issues. The remedy and compensation measures adopted after a series of threats and losses occurred could not fully repair the damage to marine economic security. Therefore, it was particularly urgent to propose a newer and more proactive governance approach.

With the continuous deepening of the construction of the marine economic security policy system, the Chinese government has focused on implementing the strategic deployment of building a marine power and advancing the strategic plan of invigorating the ocean through science and technology. Guided by scientific and technological progress and technical support, government departments have accelerated the strategic process of monitoring and early warning for marine economic security, and evaluated the effectiveness of such monitoring and early warning. The focus of China's policies has shifted to “proactive governance”, featuring “ex ante prevention”. This has driven China's marine economic security policy system from a problem-oriented stage to a comprehensive governance stage, forming a new development pattern that integrates ex ante prevention, in-process management and ex post control.

The evolution of China's marine economic security policies is not an overnight process, but a gradual and in-depth formation driven by multiple factors, including China's strategic arrangements related to marine affairs in light of domestic and international marine security situations, as well as the development needs of the marine economy itself. This paper attempts to analyze the dynamic mechanism of the evolution of marine economic security policies from the perspectives of changes in domestic and international strategic environments and the development demands of the marine economy.

In recent years, the international marine security situation has remained tense, with constant marine territorial disputes in some regions. Factors such as terrorism and inter-regional trade conflicts have posed enormous threats to the security of China's marine economy. To ensure the sound and secure development of China's marine economy, China has promulgated a series of corresponding marine economic security policies to better cope with the severe international marine security landscape.

In terms of marine rights and interests, China boasts a vast marine territory. Its marine rights and interests, especially those in the South China Sea, have been continuously provoked and violated, which has severely undermined the development of China's marine economy, with particularly heavy losses in fishery and oil and gas resources. Competition for resource rights and interests is the root cause of marine conflicts and contradictions. To this end, the Chinese government has formulated a host of relevant policies, such as the Statement of the Government of the People's Republic of China on China's Territorial Sovereignty and marine Rights and Interests in the South China Sea issued in 2016, so as to foster a sound development environment for China's marine economy.

From the perspective of marine governance, no consensus has been reached on global ocean governance to date, and it has become increasingly challenging for all nations to reach international consensus in pivotal fields covering the marine environment and marine industries (Lin, 2020). Meanwhile, the entry into force of the universally recognized United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea has certain negative repercussions. The Convention primarily advocates harmonious coexistence and the settlement of marine affairs through compromise, which has contributed to long-standing frictions among major marine powers, intensified international marine delimitation disputes (Jia and Deng, 2020), exacerbated the grim international marine security situation, and plunged global ocean governance into profound difficulties. Against such a backdrop, the Chinese government has formulated targeted marine economic security policies and put forward Chinese solutions for global ocean governance. The proposition of “actively promoting the reform of the global governance system” outlined in the Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035 demonstrates China's resolve to actively participate in global marine affairs, embody the responsibility of a major country, and practically implement the vision of building a community with a shared future for mankind.

Overall, non-traditional international marine security threats are becoming increasingly prominent, and issues such as frequent marine terrorism and transboundary international marine pollution all restrict China's marine economic security. Owing to the export-oriented nature of the marine economy, the threats confronting it are characterized by a wide coverage. Faced with the grim situation of international marine security, China is urgently required to further formulate a series of policies conducive to safeguarding its marine economic security. On the premise of well protecting its own marine economic security, China will develop the marine economy and build a marine economic development and marine economic security governance system with distinctive Chinese characteristics.

Since the 21st century, as the proportion of the marine economy in the national economy has continued to increase and its significant driving effect on hinterland economies has become increasingly prominent, China has gradually recognized the vital role of the marine economy and further refined and improved its development strategies. The Report to the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China set the goal of building China into a “marine power” as a national strategic objective. General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized: “A developed marine economy is an important pillar for building a marine power.” “We should accelerate the development of world-class seaports, a sound modern marine industrial system, and a green and sustainable marine ecological environment to contribute to the building of a marine power.” Achieving the historic transformation from a large marine country to a strong marine power is the call of the times and an inevitable path for the Chinese nation to achieve prosperity and rejuvenation.

In addition, the initiative to build the “21st Century marine Silk Road” under the Belt and Road Initiative, as a new proposition in China's diplomacy, has gradually been elevated to the national strategic level. In November 2013, the Decision of the Communist Party of China on Several Major Issues Concerning Comprehensively Deepening Reform, adopted at the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, clearly stated: “We will accelerate the connectivity of infrastructure with neighboring countries and regions, advance the development of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century marine Silk Road, and form a new pattern of all-round opening-up.” In December of the same year, at the Central Economic Work Conference, Xi Jinping proposed advancing the development of the Silk Road Economic Belt and building the 21st Century marine Silk Road. Following the proposal of the “Community with a Shared Future for Mankind”, General Secretary Xi Jinping further put forward the important concept of a “marine Community with a Shared Future” when meeting collectively with foreign naval delegations attending the events marking the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Liberation Army Navy in Qingdao on April 23, 2019. This represents China's call to people around the world for marine development in the new era and embodies China's mission and responsibility in striving to become a “marine power”. The formulation of the “marine power”, the “21st Century marine Silk Road”, and the “marine Community with a Shared Future” marks the increasing improvement of China's strategic system for marine development and the gradual maturity of its theoretical framework.

As a critical part of realizing China's marine strategies, the endeavor to safeguard marine economic security keeps pace with the times. Its relevant policies, based on an overall grasp of the evolution of China's national marine strategies, have been continuously evolving to address marine economic security issues in different periods and respond to the overall national marine strategic layout of each era. Therefore, the transformation of national marine strategies, as the driving force behind the evolution of China's marine economic security policies, has propelled the maturation and improvement of China's marine economic security policy system.

With the rapid growth of the marine economy, corresponding marine economic security policies are required to provide strategic support to meet its own development needs, which also constitutes an important factor driving the evolution of marine economic security policies. China's marine ecological environment is still in a period featuring the peak of pollution emissions and environmental risks, as well as the overlap of ecological degradation and frequent disasters, and the existing governance achievements are not yet solidly grounded (Guan et al., 2019).

In addition, the development of marine industries such as marine fishery, marine transportation and marine tourism is subject to the status of the marine ecological environment. Faced with the severe marine ecological environment situation, the Chinese government has implemented a series of policies for ecological civilization construction, shifting the marine economic development model from extensive development to intensive development, so as to maintain the stability of marine economic development. The promulgation of policies including the Opinions on Carrying out the Construction of Marine Ecological Civilization Demonstration Zones, the Interim Measures for the Construction and Management of Marine Ecological Civilization Demonstration Zones, and the Index System for the Construction of Marine Ecological Civilization Demonstration Zones (Trial) by the State Oceanic Administration in 2012 reflects the Chinese government's emphasis on marine economic security, and is a result of adapting to the inherent development needs of the marine economy.

In the process of high-quality development of the marine economy, China's marine science and technology foundation and the transformation of scientific research achievements into productive forces remain weak, leading to low added value of products, weak competitiveness, and severe industrial isomorphism and low-level competition (Li et al., 2022). Therefore, the development of strategic emerging marine industries is of far-reaching significance. As a high-end link in the marine industrial chain, such industries serve as an important guarantee for breaking through bottlenecks restricting marine development and a critical starting point for safeguarding marine economic security. The 13th Five-Year Plan for the Development of National Strategic Emerging Industries issued in 2016 includes multiple arrangements for the development of emerging marine industries, indicating that with the development of China's marine economy, the high-tech industry relying on marine science and technology has also launched a series of supporting strategic measures to enhance China's marine scientific and technological innovation capability.

After the proposal of the reform goal of “advancing the modernization of the national governance system and governance capacity”, the development of the marine economy has also been closely linked to the construction of a comprehensive marine governance system. The promulgation of policies such as the Measures for the Implementation of Marine Administrative Penalties in 2002 and the Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Implementation of Customs Administrative Penalties in 2004 reflects that marine administrative administration serves the development of the marine economy, and constitutes a macro-control measure to safeguard marine economic security.

Overall, the inherent development needs of the marine economy drive the enactment of marine economic security policies. Whether for the purpose of enhancing the risk resistance capacity of the marine economy or breaking through the technical bottlenecks restricting marine economic development, marine economic security policies play a vital role at critical moments.

The Report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly sets out to advance the modernization of the national security system and capabilities and safeguard national security and social stability. It stresses the full implementation of the Overall National Security Outlook, the integration of national security into all aspects of national governance, and taking economic security as the foundation to coordinate security in key areas including the economy, resources and marine sectors. This strategic arrangement clarifies the core connotations of the Overall National Security Outlook in terms of economic security and marine security. As an important component of the national economic system, the marine economy features dual attributes of economic security and marine security and its strategic status keeps rising. Accordingly, marine economic security has become a vital part of the overall national security system.

Under the context of the new development stage, new development philosophy and new development paradigm, to follow the strategic requirement of “forging a new security landscape to underpin a new development landscape”, we must adhere to the Overall National Security Outlook, clarify the strategic positioning of marine economic security, and promote its effective alignment with national economic security and overall national security. It is essential to explore pathways to support national holistic security and consolidate the fundamental role of marine economic security in underpinning the national security system.

The Report further emphasizes the need to coordinate internal and external security, traditional and non-traditional security, as well as individual and collective security. Efforts should be made to coordinate the maintenance and shaping of national security, improve mechanisms for participating in global security governance, and deepen international security cooperation. As an open and interconnected strategic space, the ocean serves as a core arena for safeguarding national security and engaging in global governance. Against the profound shifts in the international landscape, leveraging the ocean to participate in global governance, deepen international cooperation and consolidate the defense line of marine economic security represents a major direction for the in-depth integration of relevant policies with the Overall National Security Outlook.

Establishing a systematic, standardized and well-defined policy system for marine economic security is not only an inevitable requirement for implementing the Overall National Security Outlook, but also a core measure to strengthen national capacity for safeguarding marine economic security. As analyzed in the preceding discussion on policy evolution, current provisions concerning marine economic security are mostly scattered across policy documents covering marine industries, ecological environment, fisheries, engineering construction and resource development. Specialized and overarching legislation as well as top-level policies targeting marine economic security remain noticeably inadequate. Therefore, it is urgent to formulate dedicated overarching policies for marine economic security under the guidance of the Overall National Security Outlook. Such policies will deliver unified guiding principles, clear policy objectives and systematic implementation routes for fragmented marine security governance across various fields, break down governance barriers between different sectors, industries and authorities, and improve the performance of collaborative governance among multiple stakeholders.

The Report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposes to “enhance the resilience and security of industrial and supply chains”, which extends national security governance to the dimension of industrial chain security and sets the direction for developing the policy system of marine economic security. As top-level guidelines, the dedicated overarching policies shall focus on the core requirements of industrial chain security, and build a four-dimensional policy system centered on marine industrial security, marine technological security, marine ecological and resource security, and marine administrative regulation security. In light of the distinct characteristics of each field, relevant security goals, core contents and implementation approaches shall be clarified to ensure deliverable governance objectives and executable implementation routes. This will not only consolidate the defense line of marine economic security, but also provide solid support for overall national security.

Marine economic security covers multiple dimensions including national security and industrial security and involves a wide range of governance participants. At present, governance over marine economic security in China remains government-led, with insufficient participation from market players and social entities. A mature pattern of multi-stakeholder collaborative governance has yet to be formed. Promoting diversified and in-depth participation of various actors serves as a key approach to implementing the Overall National Security Outlook and improving governance efficiency.

On the one hand, it is necessary to improve marine infrastructure and information platforms, and coordinate facilities, equipment and technical resources to create a solid foundation and an open environment for multi-stakeholder participation. On the other hand, administrative, market and social governance tools should be coordinated to form joint governance synergy. Relevant policies standardize marine economic activities and maintain operational order, thereby boosting economic benefits. In turn, the high-quality development of the marine economy can feed investment into security governance, creating a virtuous cycle between security and development and stimulating the internal motivation of all social actors to engage in governance. Meanwhile, we need to improve third-party supervision and legal guarantee mechanisms to clarify the rights, obligations and collaborative relations of all participants. Supported by platform-based governance, a collaborative governance system featuring government guidance, market operation and public participation can be established, providing institutional and organizational safeguards for the comprehensive protection of marine economic security.

Taking 63 policy documents on marine economic security issued from 1990s to 2025 as research samples, this paper adopts bibliometric methods including word frequency analysis and social network analysis to systematically explore the evolutionary characteristics, inherent logic and driving mechanisms of marine economic security policies in China. Compared with existing studies, this paper improves the theoretical analysis framework of policy evolution concerning marine economic security based on long-term quantitative data. The core conclusions are drawn as follows:

First, China's marine economic security policies show distinct three-stage evolutionary characteristics, namely the embryonic stage, rapid development stage and mature stage. The core focus of policy governance has been continuously upgraded. It has gradually expanded from the initial single marine pollution control and ex post compensation regulation to fishery resource management, sea area administration and disaster prevention and control, and eventually formed a systematic security governance system covering ecology, industry, science and technology, as well as marine rights and interests.

Second, the evolution of such policies follows three progressive logical paths. Policy objectives have shifted from addressing micro-level practical issues to underpinning macro national security strategies; governance entities have transformed from single government dominance to multi-departmental joint collaborative governance; governance models have been iteratively upgraded from passive ex post remediation to a full-cycle proactive prevention and control mechanism integrating pre-warning, in-process supervision and post-event restoration.

Third, policy iteration is driven by multiple coordinated forces. Changes in the international marine landscape and impacts of marine security risks serve as external driving forces; top-level strategic arrangements such as the marine Power Strategy and the Overall National Security Outlook provide core guidance; endogenous demands for marine industrial upgrading, ecological conservation and technological innovation continuously promote policy optimization and improvement.

Based on the driving forces and development trends identified through word frequency statistics and social network analysis, and in light of the current realities of marine economic security governance, this paper puts forward targeted optimization paths to facilitate the coordinated advancement of high-quality development and secure development of the marine economy.

First, improve the top-level policy system and make up for institutional deficiencies. Empirical results indicate that the relevance of policy coordination-related terms keeps growing throughout policy evolution, marking an obvious trend toward integrated policy arrangement. Guided by the Overall National Security Outlook, we shall integrate various marine-related policies, resolve policy fragmentation, optimize the connection mechanism of policies at all levels, and establish a standardized, unified and fully-fledged institutional system for marine economic security policies.

Second, adhere to the land-sea coordination philosophy and balance development and security. Empirical evidence shows that keywords concerning ecological conservation and resource regulation have gained rising popularity and occupied core positions in the policy network. We should uphold the principles of ecological priority and land-sea coordination, coordinate marine resource exploitation and ecological protection as well as industrial development and risk prevention and control, abandon extensive development modes, and promote the green, secure and sustainable development of the marine economy.

Third, empower governance with science and technology and strengthen security prevention and control capacity. A comparison of empirical data across different stages reveals that terms related to scientific and technological innovation have gradually gained prominence, and innovation-related nodes play an increasingly prominent connecting role in the co-occurrence network. Relying on marine scientific and technological innovation, we shall build digital monitoring, early warning and emergency response platforms, improve the whole-chain risk prevention and control mechanism, drive industrial upgrading via technological innovation, and consolidate the bottom line of marine industrial security and technological security.

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