Reducing CO2 emissions from transportation is crucial for achieving carbon neutrality in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries by 2060 or earlier. This study aimed at analyzing transportation-related energy consumption and CO2 emissions, along with their determinants and mitigation measures planned to achieve carbon neutrality in GCC countries.
To achieve the study objectives, the pressure-state-response (PSR) framework was utilized. Various methods were employed within the PSR framework, including econometric analysis using EViews, energy modeling using the low emissions analysis platform (LEAP) and content analysis of relevant policy and national documents using NVivo.
The results indicated that population and economic growth, along with increased fuel consumption, have led to a growth in transportation-related energy use and CO2 emissions in the GCC countries. Per capita transportation-related CO2 emissions in the GCC countries are higher than those of several countries. To achieve carbon-neutral transportation, approximately 1.8 bn metric tons of CO2 emissions need to be avoided by 2060 or earlier. Strategies related to fuel alternatives, vehicle technologies and mass transit have been planned to reduce transportation-related CO2 emissions in the GCC countries.
This study employed a holistic approach to analyze transportation-related energy use and CO2 emissions in the GCC countries. It provides several policy implications and highlights the urgent need for policy innovations to achieve transformative change in the transportation sectors of the GCC countries.
1. Introduction
Most of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have announced a national target of 2060 or earlier for achieving carbon neutrality. National communications on climate change in these countries indicate that CO2 emissions from the energy sector account for the highest share (88%) of their total CO2 emissions (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [UNFCCC], 2024), of which 22% are generated by the transportation sector (International Energy Agency [IEA], 2024). The GCC countries, which are located in the Arabian Peninsula in southwest Asia, are high-income, oil-exporting developing countries with very high human development indexes. Given increasing energy demands associated with expanding populations and economic growth, energy consumption doubled in this region between 2000 and 2019 (IEA, 2024). Gasoline and diesel are the main fuels used in road transportation in the GCC countries. Energy consumed in transportation not only contributes to climate change, but it also reduces air quality, which ultimately affects human health and results in environmental degradation. CO2 emissions from the transportation sector are also influenced by national economic policies. The GCC countries have prioritized diversification of their economies and endorsed a transition from dependence on fossil fuels for revenue generation to increasing the contribution of tourism, transportation, logistics, and other sectors to the gross domestic product (GDP) (Alsabbagh, 2024). This transition highlights the crucial role of transportation in economic diversification. Although reducing CO2 emissions from road transportation is possible in general, it can be challenging (Horváth and Szemesová, 2023; Li et al., 2023). Collaboration among the GCC countries can foster the transition to carbon neutrality (Alsabbagh, 2024). Yet, literature analyzing transportation-related CO2 emissions and mitigation measures in the GCC countries as a whole, is lacking. Additionally, despite the coupling between economic growth and CO2 emissions in the GCC countries (Alsamara et al., 2018; Zmami and Ben-Salha, 2020; Baydoun and Aga, 2021), there is a paucity of research on CO2 emissions from the transportation sector in relation to economic growth in individual GCC countries or panels of countries (Bekhet et al., 2017). The present study addresses these specific research gaps.
This study was aimed at analyzing transportation-related energy consumption and CO2 emissions determinants, as well as mitigation measures for achieving carbon neutrality in the GCC countries. It had three specific objectives: (1) to identify the determinants of transportation-related energy use and CO2 emissions in the GCC countries, (2) to shed light on the current state of transportation-related energy use and CO2 emissions indicators, and (3) to explore transportation-related CO2 mitigation measures identified by GCC countries. Findings from this study will inform transportation policies and climate action in the GCC countries aimed at achieving carbon neutrality. Additionally, they can contribute to achieving national energy targets along with several sustainable development goals (SDGs), including SDGs 7, 9, 11, and 13, which are respectively related to sustainable energy, resilient infrastructure, sustainable cities, and climate action.
The originality of this study lies in its holistic methodology for analyzing transportation-related energy use and CO2 emissions in GCC countries. The paper consists of five sections. The second section presents a review of the literature on transportation-related CO2 mitigation measures, and the relationship between CO2 emissions and economic growth in the GCC countries. The methodology is explained in the third section, and the results of the analyses are presented in the fourth section. The final section presents a discussion of the results along with conclusions derived from this study.
2. Literature review
A review of the relevant literature was conducted following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines (Page et al., 2021) on road passenger transportation in the GCC countries. The review of literature revealed that several studies have explored the determinants of transportation-related CO2 emissions globally, either within individual countries, or groups of countries. On the individual countries level, the determinants of CO2 emissions from the road transportation sector have been explored, for example, in China (Anwar et al., 2021), India (Ahmed et al., 2020), and Pakistan (Sohail et al., 2021). Transportation-related CO2 emissions have also been investigated in panels of countries, for example, in the European Union countries (EU) (Georgatzi et al., 2020; González et al., 2019), in Asian countries (Nasreen et al., 2020), and in the Group of Twenty (G20) countries (Habib et al., 2021). The review of literature also revealed the use of two approaches to explore the relationship between CO2 emissions and transportation (see Table 1). The first approach examines the impact of transportation (considered as an independent variable) on total CO2 emissions as the dependent variable (e.g. Nasreen et al., 2020; Sohail et al., 2021). The second approach focuses on transportation, with transport-related CO2 emissions considered as the dependent variable (e.g. Georgatzi et al., 2020; González et al., 2019; Habib et al., 2021; Dai et al., 2023; Kwilinski et al., 2024) (see Table 1).
Summary of selected literature on transportation-related CO2 emissions
| Study | Countries | Years | Methods | Dependent | Variablesa | Data sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Approach 1: CO2 emissions as the dependent variable and transportation-related factors as independent variables | ||||||
| Nasreen et al. (2020) | 17 Asian countries | 1980–2017 | Panel cointegration test, common correlated effects mean group, Granger causality test | CO2 emissions | GDP (+), energy consumption in the transportation sector (+), oil price (−) | WDI, IEA, and other sources |
| Sohail et al. (2021) | Pakistan | 1991–2019 | Nonlinear ARDL | CO2 emissions | GDP (+), population, airline passengers (+), railway passengers | WDI |
| Approach 2: CO2 emissions from the transportation sector as the dependent variable and transportation-related factors as independent variables | ||||||
| González et al. (2019) | 13 EU countries | 1990–2015 | Pooled ordinary least squares, fixed effects, generalized method of moments | CO2 emissions from transportation | Private consumption per household (+), stock of passenger cars (+), passenger transportation per kilometer of road network (+), car fuel efficiency (−) | |
| Georgatzi et al. (2020) | 12 EU countries | 1994–2014 | Panel cointegration test, FMOLS, DOLS, Granger causality test | CO2 emissions from transportation | Environmental policy stringency index (−), transportation- related climate change mitigation technologies (−), transportation value added to GDP (+) | OECD database |
| Habib et al. (2021) | G20 countries | 1990–2016 | Kao and Westerlund cointegration test, continuously-updated bias-corrected and continuously- updated fully- modified methods | CO2 emissions from transportation | Road transportation intensity (+), road transportation passengers (+), road transportation freight (+), economic growth (+), urbanization (+), crude oil price (−), trade openness (−) | OECD, WDI, IEA, dataStream |
| Kwilinski et al. (2024) | 24 EU countries | 2007–2020 | Panel-corrected standard error, feasible generalized least squares | CO2 emissions from transportation | Renewable energy (−), environment-related technologies (−), industrial value added (+), urbanization (+), GDP (+) | World Bank, Eurostat, EEA, and other sources |
| Ahmed et al. (2020) | India | 1980–2015 | Cointegration test, ARDL, bootstrap causality test | CO2 emissions from transportation | Energy consumption in road transportation (+), urbanization (−), industrial value added (+), oil price (− in the short run), GDP (+) | WDI |
| Anwar et al. (2021) | China | 1990–2018 | Quantile ARDL, Granger causality test | CO2 emissions from transportation | Investment in transportation through public–private partnerships (−), urbanization (+), renewable energy consumption (−), GDP | IEA, WDI, BP |
| Dai et al. (2023) | USA | 1970–2019 | Cointegration test, causality test, DOLS | CO2 emissions from transportation | Renewable energy consumption (−), fossil fuel consumption (+), road infrastructure (+), trade percent of GDP (+), GDP | EIA, WDI, US Department of Transportation |
| Talbi (2017) | Tunisia | 1980–2014 | Johansen cointegration test, VAR | CO2 emissions from transportation | Energy consumption in the transportation sector, energy intensity (energy consumption per GDP), fuel rate (energy use/mileage of a vehicle) (−), GDP, urbanization (+) | National agencies |
| Alshehry and Belloumi (2017) | Saudi Arabia | 1971–2011 | ARDL, Granger causality test | CO2 emissions from transportation | GDP, energy consumption in road transportation (+) | WDI |
Note(s): a (−/+) refers to the sign of the variable in relation to CO2 as the dependent variable
Source(s): Prepared based on a search of the Scopus database
Several factors influence transportation-related CO2 emissions, including economic factors (e.g. GDP and industrial value added to GDP), social factors (e.g. population and urbanization), and transportation-related factors (e.g. energy consumption in road transportation, stock of cars, car fuel economy, numbers of passengers, and distance traveled; see Table 1). The use of transportation-related variables is contingent on the availability of detailed time series panel data, which may restrict the implementation of such studies. Within the literature, the methods used to explore transportation-related CO2 emissions have varied according to the scope of the studies (Table 1). The determinants of transportation-related CO2 emissions investigated in the literature include energy consumption, the stock of cars, the number of passengers, and distance traveled, all of which contribute to increased CO2 emissions from the transportation sector. Conversely, increased car fuel efficiency, use of renewable energy, and fuel prices reduce transportation-related CO2 emissions (Alshehry and Belloumi, 2017; Talbi, 2017; González et al., 2019; Ahmed et al., 2020; Georgatzi et al., 2020; Anwar et al., 2021; Habib et al., 2021; Dai et al., 2023; Kwilinski et al., 2024).
To reduce CO2 emissions from road transportation, various measures can be implemented, including technology and clean fuels, regulatory and economic initiatives, and urban planning strategies (Fawzy et al., 2020; Fekete et al., 2021). These measures can further be categorized into avoiding the need to use motorized transportation, shifting from private cars to public transportation, and improving car fuel economy (SLoCaT, 2023). The GCC countries have implemented several measures to reduce CO2 emissions from transportation, including the removal of subsidies from fuel prices. Energy price reforms introduced in the GCC countries during the period 2015–2019 resulted in reduction of fuel consumption. Other measures to reduce transportation-related CO2 emissions have included improvements in the public transportation system, the introduction of hybrid and electric cars along with the required infrastructure and regulations, mandatory car fuel economy labeling, and the establishment of fuel economy standards (Alsabbagh, 2020; Babonneau et al., 2022; Charabi et al., 2020). Measures taken to combat COVID-19 contributed to additional energy savings of up to 22% in 2020 compared to 2019 (IEA, 2024).
Only a few studies in the review reported on transportation-related CO2 mitigation measures. Studies published during the period 2013–2022 (n = 411) mainly tackled road traffic safety, and transport planning and management, with fewer publications (n = 68) addressing transport environmental sustainability and focusing on electric cars as an option for reducing transportation-related emissions (Figure 1). Most of the reviewed literature was published during the period 2020–2022, with Saudi Arabia and Qatar featuring prominently in the studies (Figure 2). Of the mitigation measures addressing transportation-related CO2 emissions in the GCC countries covered in the literature, 43% focused on vehicle technologies and alternative fuels, 36% covered public transportation and non-motorized transit, and the remaining measures jointly tackled transport planning and regulations (Figure 2). Additionally, the review revealed only one study that has explored the relationship between transportation-related CO2 emissions, GDP, and energy consumption in road transportation in Saudi Arabia using the ARDL approach for the period 1971–2011 (Alshehry and Belloumi, 2017). This study concluded that the growth in energy consumption in road transportation has led to increased CO2 emissions in Saudi Arabia (Alshehry and Belloumi, 2017).
Co-occurrence of keywords in the literature on environmentally sustainable transportation (n = 68, co-occurrence of words = 6)
Co-occurrence of keywords in the literature on environmentally sustainable transportation (n = 68, co-occurrence of words = 6)
CO2 mitigation measures related to passenger transportation in the GCC countries addressed in the Scopus-indexed literature (n = 68) (left); number of publications per country and year (right)
CO2 mitigation measures related to passenger transportation in the GCC countries addressed in the Scopus-indexed literature (n = 68) (left); number of publications per country and year (right)
Notably, despite the variations in the implementation of CO2 mitigation measures across the GCC countries, collaboration in this area was evident. Examples of such collaboration include mandatory and uniform car fuel economy labeling and conformity with the technical specifications for electric cars laid out by the GCC Standardization Organization. Nonetheless, there are substantial gaps in transportation-related data, which are either missing or not publicly available, especially historical data on car ownership, car fuel economy, passenger-kilometers, and value addition of transportation to the GDP. These data gaps could impede further studies and explorations of the effectiveness of implementing new policies on CO2 emissions and energy consumption in the transportation sector.
In sum, analyses of transportation-related CO2 emissions in the GCC countries are lacking. The review of literature revealed that the majority of published studies focus on individual countries, with limited literature addressing the GCC countries as a whole. Additionally, there is a lack of studies on the relationship between transportation-related CO2 emissions and economic growth in the GCC countries (Bekhet et al., 2017).
Accordingly, the present study makes the following contributions. First, it provides a holistic overview of transportation-related CO2 emissions by applying an integrated approach for data collection and analysis. Second, it offers several policy insights for achieving carbon-neutral transportation. These contributions can be applied to other developing countries.
3. Methodology
This study focuses on the drivers of transportation-related energy use and CO2 emissions in the GCC countries, as well as the respective policy responses. Accordingly, the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) framework (OECD, 1993) was adopted as a guiding framework for data collection and analysis. The PSR is an indicator-based framework focusing on causality, which has been widely used in environmental quality reporting and appraisal (Huang et al., 2011). A mixed-methods approach was employed for data collection and analysis. Table 2 summarizes the methodological framework applied in the study.
A summary of the methodology
| Past - pressures | Present - state | Future - response | |
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| Objective |
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| Approach | Quantitative analysis
| Quantitative analysis
| Qualitative analysis
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| Data |
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| Tool |
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Source(s): Prepared in light of the Pressure-State-Response framework (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development [OECD], 1993)
3.1 Past – pressures
To identify the drivers and historical trends of transportation-related CO2 emissions and energy consumption, an econometric analysis and energy modeling were carried out as described below. Two econometric models were developed, incorporating several variables identified from relevant literature (Table 1).
3.1.1 Econometric analysis
To identify the determinants of energy use in the transportation sectors of the GCC countries, i.e. the first objective of this study, equation (1) was used to explore the relationship between per capita energy consumption in this sector and a selected group of variables. This group included total population, the urban population as a percentage of the total population, per capita GDP, and exports as a percentage of GDP.
where ENE denotes per capita transportation-related energy consumption, POP is the population, URB denotes urbanization, GDP denotes per capita gross domestic product, and EXP stands for exports of goods and services.
The consumption of fossil fuels is positively related to CO2 emissions as evidenced in empirical studies (Table 1). In GCC countries, gasoline is usually consumed in passenger cars, whereas diesel is mainly used in freight vehicles. Accordingly, and to explore the impact of the type of fuel on transportation-related CO2 emissions in the GCC countries, per capita gasoline and diesel consumption in the transportation sector were used as regressors (equation 2). Additionally, the pump price for gasoline was included to examine the impact of fuel price reforms on CO2 emissions in the transportation sector. Finally, to explore the relationship between temperature and the use of cars, considered as a proxy for transportation-related CO2 emissions, the annual mean temperature was added to the model.
where CO2 stands for per capita CO2 emissions in the transportation sector, GAS denotes per capita gasoline consumption, DSL denotes per capita diesel consumption in transportation, PRC denotes the pump price for gasoline, and TMP is the annual mean temperature.
All of the variables were converted into natural logarithms (equations 3 and 4) to reduce heteroscedasticity.
where α0 is the constant, α1–α4 are coefficients, i represents cross sections (i.e. GCC countries), t represents time, and ℰ is the error term.
Panel data compiled for ten variables applicable to the six GCC countries were retrieved from the World Development Indicators (WDI) database, Climate Change Knowledge Platform, and the IEA for the period 2000–2019. Table 3 shows the list of variables and data sources.
Variables and data sources
| Variable | Abbreviation | Data source |
|---|---|---|
| Model 1 | ||
| Per capita energy consumption in the transportation sector (gigajoules/capita) | ENE | IEA (2024) |
| Total population | POP | World Bank Group (2024b) |
| Urban population (% of total population) | URB | |
| Per capita GDP (constant 2017 $ rate) | GDP | |
| Exports of goods and services (percentage of GDP) | EXPO | |
| Model 2 | ||
| Per capita transportation-related CO2 emissions (metric tons/capita) | CO2 | IEA (2024) |
| Per capita gasoline consumption in the transportation sector (gigajoules/capita) | GSO | |
| Per capita diesel consumption in the transportation sector (gigajoules/capita) | DSL | |
| Pump price for gasoline (US$ per liter) | PRC | World Bank Group (2024b) |
| Annual mean temperature (⁰C) | TMP | World Bank Group (2024a) |
Five steps were followed to estimate the nexus between the selected variables (Table 3): (1) checking for cross-sectional dependence, (2) conducting unit root tests, (3) checking for multicollinearity, (4) performing cointegration tests, and (5) estimating the long-run effects (Habib et al., 2021; Majeed et al., 2021; Rahman et al., 2022; Idroes et al., 2024).
Cross-sectional dependence was first checked using the Breusch-Pagan Lagrange multiplier (LM) and Pesaran scaled LM tests. LM tests are performed in cases entailing a time dimension relatively larger than the number of cross sections (Pesaran et al., 2008). This study had six cross sections, and the time period was 20 years, so the tests were appropriate. The null hypothesis in the LM test assumes lack of cross-sectional dependence. The unit root tests were used to explore the stationarity of the variables. These tests included the Levin-Lin-Chu test, the Im-Pesaran-Shin w-stat, the ADF-Fisher Chi-square, and the PP-Fisher Chi-square. Both of the intercept, and trend and intercept were considered in these tests. The variance inflation factor (VIF) was also calculated to examine the multicollinearity between independent variables. Results below 3 were considered acceptable (Zuur et al., 2010).
Cointegration tests were performed to identify long-run relationships between variables, including the Pedroni residual cointegration test and the Kao residual cointegration test. For the Pedroni test, seven statistics were calculated: the panel v-statistic, the panel rho-statistic, the panel PP-statistic, the panel ADF-statistic, the group rho-statistic, the group PP-statistic, and the group ADF-statistic. Finally, the long-run effects were estimated using the panel fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), and the panel dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) approaches. FMOLS is a reliable approach for use with small samples, while DOLS eliminates correlations between regressors, providing more reliable estimates than those obtained using FMOLS (Merlin and Chen, 2021; Idroes et al., 2024). To check the robustness of the models, the panel generalized linear model (GLM) was applied.
3.1.2 Energy modeling
The transportation-related energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the GCC countries were modeled using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) (equation 5). Historical trends were developed for the period 2010–2021 using energy data obtained from the IEA (IEA, 2024) (Table 4). The CO2 emissions were calculated following tier 1 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) GHG inventory guidelines (IPCC, 2006).
Assumptions used for constructing historical trends
| Scenario | Variable | Main assumptions |
|---|---|---|
| Historical trend and current state | Passenger vehicles | Bahrain (2020): 600,990, Saudi Arabia (2019): 10,217,672, Oman (2020): 1,550,094, UAE (calculated, 2020): 4,015,060, Qatar (2019): 1,073,152, Kuwait (2020): 1,861,230 (Information and e-Government Authority, 2021; Qatar Planning and Statistics Authority, 2020; National Centre for Statistics and Information, 2021; Kuwait Government Online, 2021; National e-Government Portal, 2020; WHO, 2018) |
| Gasoline consumption during 2010–2020 (in terajoules) | Bahrain: 25,916–33,987; Saudi Arabia: 742,864–860,296; Oman: 76,618–101,530; UAE: 211,015–333,435; Qatar: 46,473–76,533; Kuwait: 112,667–137,863 (IEA, 2024) |
3.2 Present – state
The second objective of this study—that is, shedding light on the current state of transportation-related energy use and CO2 emissions in the GCC countries—was met via benchmarking. Data for the GCC countries, sourced from Our World in Data (2023) and IEA (2024), were compared with data for selected countries, and three indicators were calculated using Equations (6)–(8).
3.3 Future – response
Two scenarios were developed using LEAP: baseline and net zero emissions scenarios, with 2021 set as the base year and 2060 as the end year to depict energy use in road transportation and CO2 emissions. Assumptions used to develop the scenarios are presented in Table 5.
Assumptions used in developing the scenarios
| Scenario | Variable | Main assumptions |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline | First year, end year | 2021–2060 |
| Passenger vehicles, growth rate based on historical trends (%) | Bahrain: 4.3%, Saudi Arabia: 5.3%, Oman: 4.3%, UAE: 3.6%, Qatar: 3.2%, Kuwait: 4.4% | |
| Gasoline consumption, growth rate based on historical trends (%, excluding 2020) | Bahrain: 1.8%, Saudi Arabia: 0.2%, Oman: 0.2%, UAE: 6.8%, Qatar: 3.5%, Kuwait: 0.3% | |
| Net zero | Passenger vehicles | Fleet electrification increases by 25% in 2030, 50% in 2040, 75% in 2050, and 100% by 2060, with renewable energy as the source of electricity |
Most of the GCC countries have set a target for achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 or earlier. Content analysis of climate change-related policies and national reports published between 2019 and 2023 and available online was performed. A total of 13 documents were retrieved from UNFCCC (2024) (Table 6). The methodology explained in (Huang et al., 2023) was followed. Themes served as the unit for analysis and the policy texts were coded and clustered into categories (Huang et al., 2023; Zhang and Wildemuth, 2017). Categories were based on measures to mitigate transportation-related CO2 emissions described in the updated version of the Avoid-Shift-Improve (ASI) framework (The Partnership on Sustainable, Low Carbon Transport [SLoCaT], 2023) and those proposed by Alsabbagh (2017). The NVivo software (version 14) was used to carry out word frequency analysis and prepare the list of categories (Huang et al., 2023).
List of climate change-related policies and national reports analyzed using NVivo 14
| Country | Documents |
|---|---|
| Bahrain |
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| Saudi Arabia |
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| Kuwait |
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| Oman |
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| Qatar |
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| United Arab Emirates |
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Note(s): Two criteria were used to select the policy documents: (1) policy documents that mention transport-related CO2 mitigation options and (2) documents published during the past 5 years (2019–2023)
Source(s): Retrieved from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [UNFCCC] (2024)
4. Results
4.1 Past - pressures
4.1.1 Determinants of energy consumption and CO2 emissions in transportation
The results of the econometric analysis revealed that models 1 and 2 could be used to elicit the determinants of transportation-related energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the GCC countries (Table 7). The results of the unit root tests for both the intercept and the intercept and trend indicated that log variables in models 1 and 2 were stationary at first difference, while the cointegration tests results suggested that cointegration existed in both models. The results of the Breusch-Pagan LM and Pesaran scaled LM tests revealed the occurrence of cross-sectional dependence, and the VIF results showed that there was no multicollinearity issue between the independent variables.
The increase in energy consumption in the road transportation sectors in the GCC countries can be attributed to population and economic growth. Exports of goods and services appear to have affected energy use negatively, whereas no significant impact was evident for urbanization (Table 8). Transportation-related CO2 emissions had a positive relationship with gasoline and diesel consumption, whereas transportation-related CO2 emissions were adversely impacted by temperature and appeared to have no association with fuel price (Table 8).
Coefficients of variables in models 1 and 2
| Variable | FMOLS (pooled) | DOLS (pooled) | GLM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model 1, dependent variable ln_ene | |||
| ln_pop | 0.0618*** | 0.0583*** | 0.0583*** |
| ln_urb | −0.1348 | −0.0869 | −0.0869 |
| ln_gdp | 0.5049*** | 0.4778*** | 0.4778*** |
| ln_exp | −0.4047*** | −0.3773*** | −0.3773*** |
| Model 2, dependent variable ln_co2 | |||
| ln_gas | 0.5237*** | 0.6048*** | 0.5159*** |
| ln_dsl | 0.3544*** | 0.3973*** | 0.3440*** |
| ln_prc | 0.0177 | 0.0538 | 0.0052 |
| ln_tmp | −0.4393*** | −0.5525*** | −0.4269*** |
Note(s): *** significant at the 0.01 level, ** significant at the 0.05 level, * significant at the 0.1 level
CO2 = per capita transportation-related CO2 emissions, dsl = per capita diesel consumption in the transportation sector, ene = per capita energy consumption in the transportation sector, exp = exports of goods and services, gas = per capita gasoline consumption in the transportation sector, gdp = per capita GDP, pop = total population, prc = pump price for gasoline, tmp = annual mean temperature, and urb = urban population
4.1.2 Historical trend of transportation-related energy use and CO2 emissions
Transportation consumes a substantial share of energy consumption in the GCC countries (Figure 3). Gasoline and diesel consumption increased significantly between 2000 and 2020 (Figure 4). During the last decade, transportation-related energy consumption increased from 2010 to 2014. In 2015, fuel subsidy reforms were introduced in the GCC countries, driven mainly by an economic rationale. This initiative led to a drop in energy consumption, which reached its lowest level in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown. Transportation-related energy consumption continued to grow in 2021, almost reaching pre-pandemic levels in several GCC countries except for Oman and Saudi Arabia. Compared with 2019, in 2021, energy consumption in these countries decreased by 9.7 and 13.7%, respectively, indicating the effectiveness of their low-carbon transportation policies. Transportation-related CO2 emissions followed a similar trend (Figure 5).
Gasoline and diesel consumption in the transportation sectors of GCC countries in 2000 and 2020
Gasoline and diesel consumption in the transportation sectors of GCC countries in 2000 and 2020
4.2 Present – state
4.2.1 Benchmarking of energy use and CO2 emissions in the transportation sector
The shares of transportation-related energy consumption in the GCC countries differ, ranging from 17% in Oman to 32% in Saudi Arabia (IEA, 2024) (Figure 6). Gasoline and diesel are the main fuels used for transportation in these countries. Consequently, the shares of CO2 emissions from this sector also vary, ranging from 12.5% in Bahrain to 27.5% in Saudi Arabia (IEA, 2024). The ratio of energy consumption in transportation to the share of CO2 emissions is 1 or greater. The data suggest that in the UAE and Oman, where the ratio is close to 1, the use of fossil fuels is predominant within the transportation sector. However, a ratio exceeding 1, as in other GCC countries, indicates significant non-energy-related sources of CO2 emissions. Compared with selected developed countries such as Norway, Finland, France, Switzerland, and Sweden, a ratio below 1 indicates greater reliance on green transportation options. The per capita CO2 emissions in the transportation sectors of the GCC countries are lower than those in the United States and Canada but higher than those of several developed countries (e.g. UK, Finland, Sweden, and France), presenting an opportunity to improve the energy efficiency of this sector regionally (Figure 6).
Shares of transportation-related energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the GCC countries in 2019 compared with those of selected countries and regions
Shares of transportation-related energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the GCC countries in 2019 compared with those of selected countries and regions
4.3 Response – future
4.3.1 Reductions in transportation-related CO2 emissions
The modeling results for energy use and CO2 emissions in the transportation sector indicated that under the baseline scenario, the final energy demand for total transportation could exceed 1.5 billion gigajoules by 2060. Consequently, CO2 emissions could reach 107 million tons in 2060 if no new policies are introduced (Figure 7). The total amount of avoided emissions is expected to reach 1.8 billion metric tons, with Saudi Arabia contributing approximately 55% of the reduction in emissions (Figure 9). The reductions in energy consumption and emissions observed during the COVID-19 pandemic would need to be sustained to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 or earlier. However, transportation data for the GCC countries revealed an increase in gasoline consumption in 2021 compared with energy consumption in 2020 (IEA, 2024). This finding highlights the urgent need to implement actions to achieve a gradual transition to carbon-neutral transportation in the GCC countries.
Transportation-related CO2 emissions from the GCC countries under net zero emission scenarios (million metric tons CO2)
Transportation-related CO2 emissions from the GCC countries under net zero emission scenarios (million metric tons CO2)
Word cloud generated from the textual content of policies and national reports focusing on transportation-related CO2 emission mitigation measures
Word cloud generated from the textual content of policies and national reports focusing on transportation-related CO2 emission mitigation measures
4.3.2 Content analysis of policy documents and national reports
Given the abundance of fossil fuels in the GCC countries, previously there was no perceived urgency or need to shift to sustainable energy consumption or adopt measures to promote energy efficiency. However, with the increasing prominence of the climate change issue, it has become imperative that all countries take actions to reduce their CO2 emissions from different sectors, including the transportation sector. Figure 8 presents a list of major transportation and climate change policies and documents in the GCC countries, including their reduction targets for CO2 emissions.
Major policies, national reports, and CO2 emission reduction targets relating to road transportation in the GCC countries
Major policies, national reports, and CO2 emission reduction targets relating to road transportation in the GCC countries
An analysis of the frequency of occurrence of words in the texts of policies and national documents pertaining to carbon-neutral transportation in the GCC countries revealed linkages between transportation and energy use, economics, society, and technology (Figure 9). The results indicated a clear focus on vehicle and fuel technology as well as regulatory and economic aspects relating to CO2 mitigation measures. The application of the ASI framework in an examination of the code categories revealed an emphasis on improving car fuel efficiency. Additionally, a gradual transition toward mass transit which is aligned with global efforts to reduce CO2 emissions was apparent. However, measures to avoid and reduce unnecessary motorized transportation remain underdeveloped within the GCC’s transportation policies (Table 9). Interestingly, policies initiated at the regional level, such as car fuel economy labeling and technical specifications for electric cars, have been incorporated into national regulatory regimes across all GCC countries. However, there are clear differences among the GCC countries in terms of their national carbon-neutral transportation policies.
Categories of key transportation-related CO2 mitigation measures
| Measure/dimension | Information and planning | Regulatory and economic aspects | Vehicle and fuel technology |
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| Avoid (or reduce unnecessary motorized transportation) |
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| Potential for improvement according to SLoCaT (2023) |
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| Shift (from private to mass transit) |
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| Potential for improvement according to SLoCaT (2023) |
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| Improve (the efficiency and design of cars) |
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Source(s): Prepared using results from content analysis according to the Avoid-Shift-Improve framework updated by SLoCaT (2023)
A comparison of CO2 mitigation measures in the transportation sectors of GCC countries using the updated ASI framework (SLoCaT, 2023) enabled the identification of opportunities for improvement, especially by reducing travel demand and promoting non-motorized options (Table 9). Transportation is often viewed as a means to access goods and services. However, access can be physical or remote for both the customer and the service provider. Exploring options such as digital and home-based services, along with improved access to essential services can considerably reduce transportation needs. From an economic perspective, applying the “polluter pays principle” (principle number 16 of the Rio Declaration of 1992), can promote a fair, affordable, and achievable transition to carbon-neutral transportation. Notably, the ASI framework is explicitly mentioned in two of the UAE’s policy documents and national reports.
4.3.3 The pressures-state-response framework
Findings from the econometric analysis, energy modeling, and content analysis were embedded within the PSR framework (Figure 10). The aggregated results showed that several variables contribute to the growth of transportation-related energy and CO2 emissions in the GCC countries (Table 8). Several indicators of transportation-related energy consumption and emissions in the GCC countries exceeded those of many developed countries, and the total amount of avoided CO2 emissions could reach 1.8 billion metric tons during the period 2022–2060. To reduce CO2 emissions and achieve carbon neutrality in their road transportation sectors, the GCC countries plan to continue transitioning toward mass transportation and clean vehicles, focusing mainly on the “improve” and “shift” dimensions of the ASI framework. However, given the strong linkages between population growth and transportation-related CO2 emissions in the GCC countries, there is considerable room for improvement of components of the “avoid” dimension.
Pressure-State-Response (PSR) framework for carbon-neutral transportation in the GCC countries
Pressure-State-Response (PSR) framework for carbon-neutral transportation in the GCC countries
The use of the PSR framework proved instrumental in eliciting a comprehensive understanding of key problems and pinpointing potential solutions. The indicator-based approach was enriched by embedding all the results within the framework, providing valuable insights on past, present, and future trends and plans, which can ultimately guide the formulation of necessary actions for achieving the desired target.
5. Discussion and conclusions
The reduction of CO2 emissions from the transportation sector is crucial for GCC countries to achieve carbon neutrality. This study investigated transportation-related energy consumption and determinants of CO2 emissions and mitigation measures for achieving carbon neutrality in GCC countries. Three analytical methods were used within the ASI framework to achieve this aim: econometric analysis, energy modeling, and content analysis. The study findings confirmed that population growth and economic growth significantly contributed to CO2 emissions from road transportation in the GCC countries. Increases of 6 and 50% in the population and per capita GDP, respectively, led to a 1% increase in per capita transportation-related CO2 emissions in the GCC countries. The consumption of gasoline and diesel also contributed to CO2 emissions in this sector. Increases in gasoline and diesel consumption of 60 and 40%, respectively, led to a 1% increase in per capita transportation-related CO2 emissions. Causal relationships have been established in the GCC countries between energy consumption and CO2 emissions on one hand, and population and economic growth on the other hand as evident in (Amer et al., 2024; Bekhet et al., 2017). The findings of this study are aligned with those reported in the literature focusing on the determinants of transportation-related energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the region.
The results of the analysis revealed that the annual mean temperature was adversely related to per capita CO2 emissions from transportation. During extremely hot weather, people tend to prefer indoor activities and commute less (Anwar et al., 2023). The ridership of public transportation is significantly reduced during extremely hot weather (Shaaban and Siam, 2021). The findings also showed that, unsurprisingly, the removal of fuel subsidies had not resulted in a reduction of CO2 emissions. This is because the fuel demand is price inelastic in the region (Atalla et al., 2018). The findings also suggest a link between a rising share of goods and service exports in a country’s GDP and reduced CO2 emissions in the transportation sector. Given that transportation plays a crucial role in exporting goods, developing industrial areas near ports have minimized the need for road transportation, leading to a decrease in transportation-related CO2 emissions. This finding is aligned with GCC initiatives to promote economic diversification, offering valuable insight for shaping environmental and economic policies in the region. However, the literature reveals mixed results in relation to the impact of exports on CO2 emissions. For example, a positive relationship between exports and CO2 emissions was found in the UAE (Liu et al., 2024). Conversely, Mania (2020) has posited a positive relationship for emerging countries but a negative one for industrial countries. Thus, further research is needed, as the current literature focusing on the export–environment connection is limited (Liu et al., 2024).
For GCC countries to reach their carbon neutrality goals, transportation-related CO2 emissions must be tackled. Achieving a carbon-neutral transportation system ideally entails reduced reliance on motorized vehicles, the promotion of public transport, and enhanced energy efficiency of various transportation modes (Fawzy et al., 2020; Fekete et al., 2021). However, a gradual transition toward prioritizing public acceptance is crucial to address governance and social justice concerns. Furthermore, a balanced planning approach that focuses on both technology and society is needed. While fuel alternatives, vehicle technology, and mass transit are important, prioritizing the fulfillment of the needs of the population, entailing minimal physical travel is essential (Alsabbagh and Alnaser, 2023; SLoCaT, 2023). Fostering policy innovations that promote social and behavioral changes in the region is also critical (Alsabbagh, 2017).
The findings of this study have several policy implications. First, prioritizing CO2 emissions reduction in the transportation sector is critical to achieve carbon neutrality. Effective measures in this area will significantly impact total CO2 emissions across GCC countries. By showing that, an explicit and comprehensive transportation decarbonization plan is needed in most GCC countries, incorporating interim targets, initiatives, and a monitoring and evaluation system. Most importantly, the tackling of population and economic growth, which are key drivers of transportation demands and associated energy consumption and CO2 emissions, addresses the root causes not only of transportation-related CO2 emissions but also of air pollution and traffic congestion. Developing a comprehensive transportation strategy that considers various dimensions—environment, cost, traffic, society, and investment—can deliver significant benefits.
Careful planning is crucial for the success of carbon-neutral policy, especially when providing monetary and non-monetary incentives to encourage ownership and use of clean cars. The results of qualitative data analysis revealed several areas for improvement related to CO2 mitigation measures in the transportation sector such as the adoption of a hybrid on-site and remote work/study model. Considering these options in transportation planning could be effective in reducing transportation-related emissions and promoting human well-being (Stefaniec et al., 2024). Another transportation-related CO2 mitigation measure that merits consideration is the introduction of a pollution tax on fuel prices. By introducing this tax, partial or full costs of environmental degradation associated with gasoline and diesel consumption would be reflected in the fuel price. However, from an ethical point of view, sustainable alternatives to private fossil fuel cars should be provided before introducing pollution taxes in the region (Alsabbagh, 2017).
Another policy implication is related to the collection of data, calculation of indicators, and dissemination of transportation-related information. In the search for variables to conduct econometric analysis, time series data for several indicators related to the ownership and use of passenger cars were missing. By emphasizing the importance of these inputs for research, the GCC Statistical Center (GCC STAT) can play an imperative role in coordinating efforts and ensuring consistency in the collected data and calculated indicators. Furthermore, the findings from the content analysis of national reports revealed variations in the adopted transportation-related CO2 mitigation measures. Coordinating regional collaboration through the Secretariat General of the GCC can help facilitate policy learning and policy transfer among GCC countries to achieve carbon neutrality in the transportation sector.
To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to provide a comprehensive investigation of CO2 emissions from the road transportation sector across the GCC countries. However, it had some limitations. First, the panel data covered a relatively limited period (i.e. 20 years), and some transportation-related indicators were missing. Additionally, the analysis of policies and national reports was limited by the brief timeframe (5 years). Yet, the data and policy text inputs were relatively up to date, reflecting the current status of transportation-related CO2 emissions and energy consumption in the GCC countries. Future research directions include exploring how policy innovations, entailing a collaborative approach among countries, can drive transformative change and accelerate the transition toward carbon-neutral transportation in the GCC countries.
Abbreviations
- ADF
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test
- ARDL
Autoregressive Distributed Lag
- ASI
Avoid-Shift-Improve framework
- BP
British Petroleum Company
- DOLS
Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares
- EEA
European Environmental Agency
- EIA
US Energy Information Administration
- EU
European Union
- FMOLS
Fully Modified Least Squares
- G20
Group of Twenty
- GCC
Gulf Cooperation Council
- GDP
Gross Domestic Product
- GLM
Generalized Linear Model
- IEA
International Energy Agency
- IPCC
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
- IPS
Im-Pesaran-Shin test
- LEAP
Low Emissions Analysis Platform
- LLC
Levin-Lin-Chu test
- LM
Lagrange multiplier
- NC
National Communication on Climate Change
- NDC
Nationally Determined Contributions
- OECD
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
- PP
Phillips-Perron test
- PRISMA
Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses
- PSR
Pressure-State-Response framework
- SNC
Second National Communication on Climate Change
- TNC
Third National Communication on Climate Change
- TOE
Tons of Oil Equivalent
- UNFCCC
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
- VAR
Vector Autoregressive
- VIF
Variance Inflation Factor
- WDI
World Development Indicators
The author thanks Ms. Johari for editing a draft of this manuscript, and the four anonymous reviewers for their constructive and valuable comments. This research was conducted within the framework of HH Shaikh Zayed Bin Sultan Al Nahyan for Environmental Sciences at the Arabian Gulf University.
