Inclusive housing policies may mitigate consumption downgrading via housing wealth, yet their actual efficacy and alignment with low-carbon development goals warrant further validation.
Herein, China's “Suggestions on Adjusting Housing Supply Structure to Stabilize Housing Prices” (commonly referred to as “National Article Six,” NAS) is selected as an exogenous policy shock. A Bunching model is employed to identify the intention-to-treat effects of housing wealth growth on household consumption behavior and household consumption-based carbon emissions (HCCE).
(1) Due to real estate speculation, the NAS policy generated no significant bunching in housing purchases before 2018, yet it effectively boosted housing wealth after 2018. (2) The resulting consumption-stimulating effects were concentrated merely in two categories – dressing and education, as well as entertainment and culture. Correspondingly, their HCCE increased by 4.7 and 4.4%, accounting for 0.11 and 0.05% of China's total carbon emissions, respectively.
Existing literature on the impact of housing wealth on consumption remains contentious, with debates centering on the wealth effects versus the mortgage slave effect. To this end, a more extensive body of evidence is hereby proposed, incorporating housing supply structure and HCCE into the research framework. By decomposing the impact into specific consumption categories, the research provides evidence for refining housing policies to promote consumption while balancing low-carbon development goals.
