Assessing country risk using a multi‐group discrimination method: a comparative analysis

Explains the importance of assessing country risk to lenders and investors, outlines previous research on techniques for doing this and describes a classification method: the multi‐group hierarchical discrimination method (MHD). Applies this to 1978‐1995 data for 143 countries, subdivided into four income groups, and compares the results with those from multiple discriminant, logit and probit analyses using jackknife procedures. Finds MHD more accurate overall and for most income groups except the lower‐middle income economies. Briefly considers other applications for MHD and avenues for further research.