Corporate failure for manufacturing industries using firms specifics and economic environment with logit analysis

The purpose of this paper was to determine whether a model utilizing a number of economic variables in combination with financial ratios results in a model superior to the traditional models including the financial ratios alone. A sample of 110 manufacturing companies which had become bankrupt between 1990 and 1997 were identified from the F & S Index and matched to 110 non‐failed companies on the basis total assets, financial statement date and four digit industry code. The proposed model predicted correctly 87.82 and 87.50 percent of the estimation and holdout samples, respectively. The significance of the coefficients in each year’s model was evaluated by using the t‐statistic corresponding to each coefficient’s value. The overall models are significant at ∝‐level of 0.05.