The widespread use of social media has increased the complexity of public opinion dissemination networks, making effective monitoring and regulation more challenging. Identifying key factors that trigger opinion outbreaks in a timely manner is crucial for crisis management. This study develops a dissemination model based on multi-tiered circle structures (MCDM) to analyse hierarchical public opinion diffusion on social media.
Using dissemination data from “the Big-Headed Baby incident involving antibacterial cream” public opinion event on Sina Weibo, collected between January 6 and February 6, 2021, this study employs complex social network analysis and time-series modelling to construct overlapping multi-tiered dissemination structures. Using core-periphery analysis, we propose a dynamic method to identify key users across different hierarchical tiers. Additionally, we examine the roles of sentiment evolution and cross-circle interactions in shaping public opinion dissemination.
The results indicate that (1) as hierarchical depth increases, dissemination volume grows exponentially; (2) in smaller circles, user interaction levels and cross-circle engagement are negatively correlated with propagation distance and (3) abrupt shifts in negative sentiment frequently occur within multi-tiered dissemination structures, significantly influencing information spread. Cross-circle interactions play a crucial role in opinion diffusion.
This study unveils the circle-based phenomenon in social media opinion dissemination through the dynamic identification of multi-tiered dissemination structures and cross-circle interactions, offering new perspectives for public opinion governance. It proposes the MCDM, which integrates sentiment, hierarchical depth and cross-circle interactions to explain dissemination dynamics.
