Drunk driving: probability of detection and its perception

The detection of drunk driving is an important task of police organizations. The impact of police work on drunk driving depends largely on drivers’ perceptions of the probability of detection. The present study explored the effects of different enforcement strategies on this perception. Participants (n=77) experienced different control strategies in a game and subsequently rated probability of detection. Degree of surveillance and efficiency of controls were varied. In the case of low detection probabilities, a substantial overestimation was found. Moreover, participants rated probability of detection higher when the same rate of detection was accomplished with few but efficient, compared to more but inefficient, controls. Assuming that a similar perception process is at work for drunk driving, the results suggest that increasing efficiency will have a greater impact on deterring drunk driving than increasing the frequency of controls. Consequences for police work are discussed.