Blue urbanism and economy: a strategy for the future of Brunei

Since the 1992 Earth Summit, the global community has adopted sustainable development (SD) as defined in the Brundtland Commission report, Our Common Future (WCED, 1987), as the guiding concept in development and economic planning. Agenda 21, adopted at the Summit, provided a blueprint for realising a sustainable future for humanity, which was succeeded by the Millennium Development Goals and currently, the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). The various colours (blue, green and grey) are used to describe the economic and developmental focus. The “green” economy (Pearce, Markandya, & Barbier 1989), for example, stressed the interconnection between economy and environment, and therefore the need to protect nature from the impacts of economic activities. “Blue” focuses on the aquatic-oceanic part of the natural environment and sustainable utilisation of estuaries and oceans. Grey refers to constructed features, whether partially or wholly using manufactured materials. Brunei, in its long-term vision (Wawasan 2035 ^[1]), desires a sustainable future in which the economy, quality of life and capability of its citizenry are comparable with the most advanced in the world. Realising sustainable aspirations is, however, a monumental task that requires the concerted efforts of all parties and involves significant investment to develop the necessary knowledge base, professional-technical capacity and systems to facilitate the transition.

The Blue Economy ^[2], as envisaged by Pauli (2010), visionary founder of Zero Emissions Research and Initiative (ZERI), is an economic system that regenerates, continually creating abundant meaningful employment through sustainable (ecological) exploitation of oceanic resources. It garnered interest at the 2017 UN Ocean Conference, and the momentum has continued globally. Hazra and Bhukta (2022) provided a comprehensive history of the development of the blue economy, differentiating it from the ocean economy and presented details of how countries in Asia have embraced it over the past decade. Indonesia, an archipelagic nation, has implemented integrated marine policies and community-based management practices focused on sustainable fisheries, conservation and ecotourism. Japan, South Korea and China are other Asian countries that have invested in blue economic development.

The blue economy is founded on an ecological paradigm, which differs starkly from the “mechanistic” industrial paradigm which gave rise to and continues to sustain the modern world (see, e.g. Capra, 1996). Blue Urbanism (Beatley, 2014) applies urban planning in coastal-estuarine environment within the same paradigm ^[3]. Ecological systems are characterised by organic, adaptative innovation and the emergence of new features. In the economy, this encompasses new technologies, systems, sectors, products and jobs. Indeed, the subheading of Pauli's 2010 book is: 10 years, 100 innovations, 100 m jobs. In Japan, South Korea and China, Blue Economy has spawned numerous jobs and innovations and contributed to economic growth (Hazra & Bhukta, 2022).

Blue urban development and economy are relevant to Brunei because of its physical environment as a coastal state. Historically, the Sultanate was a thalassocracy. Its capital city was built entirely over water in the Sungai Brunei estuary, where every aspect of life and economy was adapted to a semi-aquatic existence (Blundell, 1923). This included a variety of industries, trading facilities and a floating mobile market. The modern capital, Bandar Seri Begawan (BSB), developed along the Sungai Kedayan estuary, which extended north from the water city (now known as Kampong Ayer). Blue urbanism and economy have therefore existed in their pre-SD form in Brunei prior to the 20th century. Although the transition to land has altered characteristics of Brunei wholesale, climate change is likely to recreate a future environment that has a greater proportion of “blue” as a consequence of sea level rise and higher rainfall.

This paper presents the case for why adopting blue urbanism and economy (BUE) is the logical strategy for Brunei if it were to achieve its SD objectives and face climate change proactively. The paper will analyse the existing institutional structures vis-à-vis capacity for BUE against a backdrop of regional development, such as China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The paper will focus on critical factors, drawing on lessons learnt from experiences in integrated coastal zone management projects for effective implementation of BUE. In particular, how it could benefit local communities, given prevailing culture and circumstances. The paper will conclude with a strategy tailored for Brunei.

The study involved (1) a systems analysis to identify the structure and components necessary for effective BUE, and (2) reference to existing knowledge on the Brunei context.

1. Systems analysis

Figure 1 shows the basic structure and component needed to implement the BUE system. Crucially, there must first be a clear policy on these concepts. Once it is adequately articulated, legislation and institutions could be drawn and established to regulate firms and enterprises as well as trade and investments with foreign entities. The former includes laws and guidelines governing transaction and responsibilities, while the later facilitate and regulate trade and foreign direct investments (FDI). Component 6 represents an agency that deals with foreign interests and FDI, notably with firms and agencies in the BRI and the Asia-Pacific Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), of which Brunei are members. Existing knowledge on the Brunei context (refer to the following section) will be used to identify gaps and potential issues. Figure 1 (box) also indicates the current state of the components of the system.

1. Brunei context

BUE overlaps with integrated coastal management (ICM). They share the same aim of sustainable development and utilisation of coastal-marine resources. The latter has a wider scope of managing the entire coastal zone (see, e.g. Kildow, 1997; Sorenson, 1997). Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM), a specific ICM model, was introduced in 1972 in the USA following the passage of the ICZM Act (Kildow, 1997). The legislation established an office, which functions to integrate federal and state agencies (“vertically”) and all relevant public and private sectors as well as special interest groups (“horizontally”), to ensure coordinated development and to resolve conflicting activities. ICZM was introduced to Brunei in 1987 under the US-ASEAN Coastal Resource Management Project (CRMP), which culminated in the publication of an ICZM plan for the country (DOF-MIPR, 1992). Although initial success (e.g. the Department of Fisheries’ (DOF) artificial reef programme) provided optimism (Chua, 1993; Ranjith & De Silva, 1998), the ICZM plan soon fell out of use despite further ICM initiatives, such as the ASEAN-Australia Coastal Zone Environment and Resources Management Project (CZERMP) in 1998, which promoted the use of geospatial technologies in ICM and established national data repositories in ASEAN member states.

Notwithstanding the successful implementation of some sectoral projects, notably those under DOF, which had served as the national steering agency in the CRMP, projects designed to build the necessary systems (capacity) for ICM were not implemented (DEPR, 2006; Yong & Hamid, 2007). Yong and Tamit (2001) attributed the failure of ICM gaining a foothold in Brunei to a combination of inadequate supporting policies, institutions, manpower, information system as well as a general resistance among government agencies to share information. This situation is regrettably pervasive in Brunei and must be accounted for when considering the BUE strategy. Hashim, Druce, and Julay (2025) offer insights into the same institutional problems that continue to hamper Brunei’s economic diversification ambitions. Returning to Figure 1, there are presently no specific policies on BUE in Brunei.

Therefore, no legislation or institutions specific to BUE exist. Firms operating in the marine realm, such as the oil industry and fishery, are regulated separately by relevant line agencies and laws. Although SD was cited, integration has been tenuous, involving only ad hoc consultation and seldom at the planning stage. Presently, the number of firms in the oil and fishery sectors are relatively low, the latter characterised mainly by small-scale fishers, many of whom are part-timers who fish as part of cultural activity. Fishes are caught mainly for subsistence, and the excess sold for supplementary income. As Brunei is a member of both BRI and RCEP, there are a number of international firms, including from China, that operates in Brunei. However, there is little interaction between them and the private sector or the general public. Kampong Ayer, the former capital city, which once had a vibrant “blue economy”, now exists as a settlement complex that is somewhat dilapidated and bereft of economy, resulting in some residents barely getting by and being dependent on state welfare (Hassan et al., 2022).

ICM and BUE are highly relevant to Brunei because of its geography. Environmental information used in this study was derived from the CRMP (Chua, Chou, & Sadorra, 1987; Silvestre, Matdanan, Sharifuddin, De Silva & Chua, 1992) and Yong (2010, 2021) and a number of unpublished reports in various government agencies (e.g. DEPR, 2006; Yong & Hamid, 2007). They are augmented by knowledge acquired from numerous field surveys over the years. Geological and physical geography details are also available from Sandal (1996). Brunei is located on the northwest coast of Borneo at the southern edge of the South China Sea (SCS). Its main coastal features comprise (1) part of a large bay in the east, (2) part of a large delta in the west, (3) a continental shelf extending 50–80 km from the coastline and (4) estuaries extending far inland due to the subdued topography. It has a small area, and the natural environment is largely shaped by terrestrial and marine processes.

Its geological foundation is made up of young sedimentary rocks deposited in three distinct phases of delta formation since the Miocene Period. The Champion Delta (second of the set) makes up most of the land and continental shelf. It contains most of the country's hydrocarbon resource. The Baram Delta, also rich in oil and gas, is an active delta that is building out into the SCS. During the Holocene, sea level rose by 100m, producing the present-day coastline 5,400 years ago, and transformed the lower Baram valley into a bay and the coastal lowlands into the continental shelf. An extensive peatland subsequently developed because sandy spit and beach barriers formed by longshore drift impeded drainage as the bay reverted back into a delta (Sandal, 1996). The coastline of Brunei is short, about 130 km and only about 40% of the Baram Delta and 20% of the Brunei Bay lie within Brunei's territory (Yong, 1996).

As Brunei is located 5°N of the equator, climatic conditions are warm throughout the years, and annual rainfall is high (2,500–4,500 mm) due to its proximity to the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The migration of the ITCZ to the south and north of Brunei over the year produces the Northeast (NE) and Southwest (SW) Monsoons. Winds are generally in the “breeze” category, while cloudiness, lightning activity and rainfall are high and intense. Consequently, weathering and erosion rates are high, supplying large amounts of sediments and nutrients to the coastal waters. Rapid sedimentation, combined with detritus from the rainforest, promotes delta development and formation of hydrocarbon resources. Three relatively small river systems drain the land, with two much larger ones (Baram and Limbang, both in Sarawak) discharging into Brunei's coast. Coral reefs are found on topographic highs on the shelf, such as rock outcrops and the jackets of oil platforms, because the seafloor is soft and the water murky, i.e. not conducive for coral development. Consequently, corals occur as patch reefs, with fringing reefs around two small islands.

According to the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (IPCC, 2021), sea level is rising by 3–4 mm/year and rainfall variability has increased. The effect on Brunei is increased frequency of flash floods, tidal flooding, squalls as well as dry spells, which would disproportionately affect coastal communities and industries (Hassan & Yong, 2023). The open coast would be at risk of erosion, and low-lying areas would be inundated. However, rising seas could revitalise estuaries and its ecosystem. This is because estuaries are depositional environments and therefore, naturally shrink over time due to sedimentation, diminishing their ecosystem capacity in the process. Tropical estuaries are highly productive as they are repositories of nutrients leached and eroded from land and retained by tidal dynamics. As they are directly connected to the ocean, estuaries are a critical component of the marine ecosystem, serving as nurseries and sites for juvenile organisms to grow in an environment with abundant food and shelter.

Therefore, in Brunei, climate change will create a future where the industrialised coastal strip ^[4] would be at risk of inundation and coastal erosion. Within the Sungai Brunei and Tutong estuaries, the shoreline and wetlands would migrate landward. In the highly urbanised valleys of BSB, Mulaut-Junjongan, and to a smaller extent, the towns or Kuala Belait and Tutong, urban infrastructure would be disrupted by floods and marine intrusion at increasing frequency. The current policy and practice are to protect urban and industrial areas from rising seas or floods with engineered structures, i.e. a grey solution. However, this is costly and problematic. The BUE solution is adaptive and therefore more cost-effective and achievable. Three broad areas are identified for BUE development due to their exposure to rising sea levels and more severe storms: (1) Brunei Bay, notably the industrial sites and port in Muara-Serasa; (2) BSB and (3) Kampong Ayer.

Climate change presents a future environment in the three areas identified that is more suited to BUE. This is corroborated by Kampong Ayer in pre-modern times, when it was a city built entirely over water with a vibrant economy, a variety of industries and infrastructure that facilitated trade. However, Brunei’s experience with ICZM reveals structural problems, which were identified in the CRMP (Silvestre et al., 1992; DOF-MIPR, 1992) but which have not been addressed (Yong & Tamit, 2001). Referring to Figure 1 (box), there is therefore no existing policy specific to BUE and the supporting institutions and legislation for it. There is also no single agency tasked with sustainable exploitation of coastal-marine resources or sustainable development in the coastal zone. A number of agencies (fisheries, marine, drainage and sewerage, etc.) govern activities in the different sectors largely in silos (Yong & Tamit, 2001; DEPR, 2006; Yong & Hamid, 2007).

Integration is the cog in the SD wheel. SD is attainable only when the three interconnected sub-systems of economic growth, environmental conservation and social justice are working in sync. However, given that development and governance tend to be piecemeal, superficial and largely sectoral-based, despite their sustainability banners, intended outcomes are unlikely to be achieved. An inter-agency body is critical to effective ICM (Chua, 1993) and therefore included in Brunei’s ICZM structure (DOF-MIPR, 1992). This was established as the secretariat to the National Environment Council but evolved into the Department of Environment, Parks and Recreation in 2002, which has a considerably wider portfolio than ICZM. It is therefore unable to function as the coordinating body. Instead, it functions as a line agency like another government institution.

The need for an inter-agency coordinating body is even more profound in BUE, because it is founded on the theory of ecology, which requires in-depth knowledge and expertise, i.e. considerably more than the simple concepts and targets typically used in management. In a well-developed BUE, innovation and the emergence of new products, services and industries are salient features. BUE is a vibrant integrated system, which constantly create new employment opportunities – 100 innovations and 100 m jobs, according to Pauli (2010). In the context of climate change, BUE presents an opportunity to adapt in a transformative-regenerative way so that life, commerce and social-cultural activities would continue unimpeded as a future of expanded water environment emerges over the coming decades.

To elaborate, this would involve a transition in urban mobility and services needed. As the water environment expands over time, introducing water transit in BSB would be a logical adaptive solution to complement the existing road system on higher ground. Transit by regular, reliable and comfortable water buses could complement urban mobility because Sungai Kedayan connects key services in the government administrative centre, Gadong-Kiulap commercial areas, the national hospital, schools and places of worship between Kampong Ayer and the Airport; this route was proposed in the BSB master plan’s integrated transport system (HOK, 2011) but with a Light Rail Transit (LRT). A number of terminals would be needed. They could be floating structure attached to urban complexes on land. As with rail and air terminals in modern cities, water bus terminals could be multi-functional, offering a variety of services, and therefore business and employment opportunities. However, they need to be safe and comfortable, perhaps with roof and climate control (i.e. different from the existing water taxi jetties that have no cover or railing). This also offer further opportunities in the areas of construction, design and supply and innovation of BUE infrastructure.

A variety of commercial as well as social-cultural spaces and facilities could also be developed along river estuaries. The possibilities range from sustainable aquaculture, farm-to-table eateries, waterfront bazaars and recreational, cultural heritage or learning spaces to more modern facilities that facilitate exploration and experiences of artificial-natural worlds. At Kampong Ayer, a heritage industry could be developed to support tourism and provide locals with a means to earn a living (Azalie & Yong, 2022). In the BUE system, harmonious relationship between human activities and the natural environment is paramount. Facilities would be designed to be as self-contained as possible so as to minimise waste and wastage, be efficient and regenerative. Outside academic and research institutions, such ideas are idealistic and unrealistic. This is why an inter-agency body is crucial in the development of BUE (see Figure 2). Without one to coordinate exchanges and collaboration between government agencies, businesses and people and researchers, it would not be possible to establish BUE. Without integration, sustainability is not attainable.

However, BUE requires access to technologies, professional services and supplies that are not currently available in Brunei. There is therefore a need to acquire them from abroad. Presently, China has become the leading manufacturing and knowledge hub in the world, particularly in the field of green technology, civil engineering, electronics, artificial intelligence and robotics. It has also aided members of the BRI in infrastructure development to facilitate mobility, trade and economic growth as well as in the transition towards a low-carbon future under the banner of win-win cooperation. As a member of the BRI, Brunei, however, has not tapped into the vast opportunity presented. In fact, the majority of society and small businesses is unaware of it, and many were misinformed due to the lack of engagement. Similarly, Brunei is also a member of the RCEP, another regional trade alliance that offers access to a comprehensive suite of mechanisms and expertise to leverage on the wider market and system to enhance growth and transition at the national-local level. Likewise, Brunei has not made good use of this partnership and its economy has not benefited much from it. Therefore, an agency to bridge the gap is essential to rectify the situation.

Among the few joint ventures (JV) and FDI, Hiseaton (B) Ltd introduced offshore marine ranching to Brunei (Muhamad, 2019), a novel, larger-scale and technologically more advanced and sustainable form of aquaculture. The venture has already had positive repercussions on the local aquaculture supply chain, injecting much-needed technology and expertise (and funds) to revive the DOF's hatchery (which had ceased to function) to supply brood stocks. The firm has taken the initiative to share knowledge and engage local operators as contract farmers, but these offers have been rebuffed mainly due to (1) lack of understanding of economic systems at scales beyond the local and (2) cultural inertia sustained by lack of knowledge of RCEP, BRI and other such international economic partnerships and of trade and economy in general. Ironically, the Sultanate was a major centre of maritime trade in the past.

However, a century of systematic transition to land under British administration appears to have diminished this aspect of Brunei’s heritage, which must be restored in order for its society to engage effectively in BUE. Presently, there are tens of JVs, many with Chinese firms, in Brunei. Local businesses and society in general know little about them, and misinformation regarding them is rife. The One Belt One Road (OBOR) association set up to foster engagement in the BRI has done little to improve understanding or help facilitate exchanges with interested or curious locals.

Integration is critical to sustainable development, particularly at the level of policymaking, and development of legislation and institutions specific to the task. However, equally crucial is the need for access to knowledge and expertise. Sustainability is a relatively recent concept in Brunei, and it is founded on a paradigm that is quite different from the one that has shaped modernity since the Industrial Revolution. Fritj of Capra, a philosopher of science at Berkeley, elaborated on the stark difference in paradigm in his 1996 book, The Web of Life. Including academe in the organisational framework is therefore critical for effective implementation of BUE. The academe–government partnership in the USA was key to its successful ICZM programme. As knowledge and research are needed at every level and stage of implementation, from planning to adaptive implementation and management as well as innovation and tapping into regional technical support and market, academe should be included as a close collaborator or even be part of the central coordinating agency. The latter would catalyse development of the system by providing the necessary guidance and research support to develop plan and programmes and address issues and problems. A pertinent question would be: does Brunei have academicians that specialise in BUE? Regrettably, there are but only a handful, well below the critical mass needed for effective implementation.

There are two ways to address the lack of expertise in Brunei. Firstly, Brunei can leverage the regional support system. For instance, the Fujian Institute of Sustainable Oceans (FISO), Xiamen University, launched a Capacity Building lab for Sustainable Coastal Development (CBL-SCD) at the World Ocean Week in November 2023 ^[5] to serve this purpose. Universiti Brunei Darussalam was invited to the workshop on sustainable oceans as part of this event to discuss Brunei’s capacity and issues and to participate in the CBL-SCD. Xiamen University, a co-founder of World Ocean Week, has links to industry and experts and over four decades of experience in ICZM and, more recently, BUE development. Secondly, technical capacity could be developed continuously through postgraduate and professional programmes locally as well as with partner institutions, such as the CBL-SCD in Xiamen.

In their review of ICZM twenty-five years after its introduction, Kildow (1997) and Sorenson (1997) noted the importance of adapting to the unique context of each country and adopting adaptive management approaches. The Brunei situation reveals a disconnect between government policies and programmes and micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSME), which dominates the private sector. MSME are composed mainly of individuals and friends/family members operating from home. They are streetwise but uneducated in the sophisticated systems of the modern SD-based economy or in international trade. They are not well-versed in laws and regulations, and certainly not in the ecological knowledge that underpins BUE.

Although they might/could see opportunities, they do not possess the know-how nor the confidence to engage on their own. Moreover, they would be hard-pressed to find financial support from financial institutions due to their lack of experience, knowledge and suitable business setup. Without intervention, the majority of the private sector will be excluded from the BUE, which goes against the third pillar of SD on equity and inclusion. Intervention, in the form of an enabling agency (EA), is therefore paramount to rectify this unsustainable situation. The EA serves as the interface between government agencies, the BUE coordinating agency and technical-professional support to aid local MSME (see, Figure 3). It should, however, be considerably more than an office, because it needs to have the necessary personnel with the relevant knowledge and technical know-how to take interested entrepreneurs by their hand and guide them through the process to the stage when they are sufficiently knowledgeable and capable to act on their own. Young graduates could populate the EA, as they would have the necessary knowledge base on which to build. This would also address the young graduate unemployment problem in Brunei.

The Hiseaton case study (Muhamad, 2019) illustrated the issues and problems highlighted above. It revealed a significant gap between local entities and the broader economic framework that was not addressed. Hiseaton used contract farming to facilitate technology transfer to local operators as part of their commitment to local community development. However, the latter viewed it, and the technological licensing included, as restrictive and limiting their autonomy to sell and use the technology provided in their own ways. This parochial perspective, which typifies small local operators, hinders the development of economies of scale and impedes progress, because they are ignorant of the opportunities offered by Hiseaton’s links in the massive Chinese market and resources from its parent company.

The study revealed a general lack of knowledge and understanding of technology, patents, copyrights and the need to invest in order to scale-up and modernise operation. For example, ODE (local operators’ names are identified using acronyms) is reluctant to invest in newer technology and employ qualified staff or train them due to cost. This risk-averse attitude is prevalent and hampers participation in the economy beyond the local region. QE, an aquaculture firm, imported technology from China but encountered challenges in operating their HDPE cages in Pelumpong, resulting in the need to employ Chinese technicians from the supplying company. Full technology transfer was not possible due to the language barrier.

In contrast, BA plays a mediating role in technology transfer among local firms (business-to-business), including licensing requirements, offers training and serves as suppliers for interested local aquaculture operators. The company stated that conducting workshops (which accounted for 50% of their revenue) and providing accommodation and transportation as part of an educational package were more profitable. This model of technology transfer was favoured by local participants, as licensing concerns are managed by BA. Another company, GC and Hiseaton, jointly collaborated with a technical tertiary institution in designing the syllabus for its aquaculture programme and also engaged in capacity-building activities. This included GC’s sponsorship of a group of ten students for training in Taiwan. Similarly, NE successfully acquired technology from its international partners in Hong Kong and Indonesia. However, the company required permanent staff from the partner company to aid in managing the Brunei subsidiary.

Referring to Indonesia's blue economy experience, empirical data from 2012 to 2021 (Marwa, Muizzuddin, Andaiyani, & Cahyadi 2024) revealed a positive correlation with fisheries capture, aquaculture production and ICT, which facilitate direct sales and market reach. Trade “openness” and fuel cost were the impediments, while “investment” did not appear to be significant. The study underscored the critical importance of developing robust infrastructure and implementing stringent regulatory oversight to enhance sustainable growth as well as engagement of stakeholders. In a case study involving an indigenous community in Jayapura (Papua, Indonesia), Mollet, Titalessy, and Zulhendri (2024) found that economic development in marine fisheries and ecotourism (based on traditional knowledge, “sasi laut”) was hindered by inadequate knowledge and infrastructure at the local level, even with the aid of national-regional capacity-building programmes. Local fishers’ needs were not met and extraneous factors (fish migration, overfishing in the wider ocean, fuel cost and international market forces) appear to be significant factors that were not addressed.

In a study of inclusive growth of 19 member countries of the Asian Cooperation Dialogue (1995 to 2021), Geng et al. (2024) found significant differences among three distinct income categories: lower-middle-income countries (LMYCs), upper-middle-income countries (UMYCs) and high-income countries (HYCs). Based on statistical analysis of six indicators, they found a significant positive association in augmenting inclusive growth with aquaculture production for all three categories, but for LMYC and UMYC, it included total fishery production. Significant negative associations found were with (1) agriculture, forestry and fishing (for LMYC and UMYC); (2) trade openness (LMYC), (3) renewable energy (all categories) and (4) total fishery production (HYC). The authors highlighted policy implications to address their findings as well as the need for further study on what is meant by inclusive growth in the Asian context. Our study, which is based on understanding interconnections (systems analysis) using a grounded approach, provides a more nuanced understanding of inclusive growth in the Brunei context.

The SCS is rich in fishery resources. It is a habitat for 1,500 species as well as an important spawning and nursery ground (Ke et al., 2022). However, fishery resource is presently over-exploited, with demersal stocks worst affected, at 60–70% decline (Hazra & Bhukta, 2022). In the southern region of the SCS, which includes Brunei’s waters, exploitation rates are among the highest, notably in the region around the Philippines and Malaysia. Fishing effort is disproportionately high here, and it includes illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing (Hazra and Bhukta, 2022). A number of research on SCS revealed that anthropogenic impacts have undermined the integrity of this resource base by reducing the diversity of community structure, polluting the environment (from industrial and sewage discharge and aquaculture) and dredging (Ke et al., 2022). Consequently, sensitive species have declined drastically and replaced by tolerant species.

Wu, Zhang, Wang, Kang, and Su (2024) analysed fishing intensity by Chinese and Vietnamese fishing vessels in the SCS using automatic identification (2018) data in relation to a Chinese moratorium on fishing in a designated area between May and August each year, an attempt to alleviate overfishing. The authors found that catch by Chinese vessels was up to 7.65 times higher than their Vietnamese counterparts during the “normal” (outside the moratorium) period but drastically dropped to 20–30% of typical quantities during the moratorium. In contrast, the Vietnamese catch was unchanged throughout the year. The study also found that 30% of ports in China and 55% in Vietnam supported fishing during the moratorium period, indicating ineffectiveness in regulating foreign vessels, and to a lesser extent, fish landing in general. Overfishing is compounded by IUU fishing. China, which has the largest fleet and market, has taken initiatives (including the aforementioned moratorium) and efforts to manage IUU. However, this has contributed to unwanted regional incidents and political tensions (Yu and Chang, 2023). The authors summed up the drivers of SCS geopolitics as the “three Ps: politics, petroleum, and protein (fish)” (p. 1).

Returning to the Brunei situation, efforts to enhance competency and capacity building will be ineffective if they do not drive innovation and capability development (refer to Hashim et al., 2025). Persistent challenges identified by DOF included low fish yield, production deficiencies and failure to meet local demand due to disease outbreaks, inconsistent output and size disparities, despite the availability of aquaculture manuals and guidelines. Technology transfer from experienced international entities is essential to facilitate necessary changes. It is imperative to transform local enterprises’ approach to the industry by fostering a risk-taking mindset that recognises the potential for growth beyond the current network as well as to leverage opportunities presented by joint ventures such as Hiseaton and GC. The Enabling Agency can facilitate knowledge transfer, instil this attitude and design specific mechanisms to act as a safety net in case of failure, to capitalize on economies of scale development. Addressing language barriers through intermediary services will facilitate exchange and development, especially in operational, business and trade negotiations, particularly for companies engaged in exporting. It is essential to share knowledge regarding opportunities under trade regimes such as the RCEP.

From systems analysis, it is clear that coordinating and enabling agencies are critical to BUE development. They are needed to establish connections and engage with think tank networks to share knowledge on opportunities, facilitate collaboration and to look beyond the local context. As declining fishery stock is a real problem, sustainable innovation such as sea ranching could play an important role in Brunei’s Blue Economy development, contributing to the local economy while enhancing the fishery resource base and marine ecosystem. It could also be implemented in the Brunei estuary as part of community development in Kampong Ayer and fish-to-table business in BSB. Such initiative could catalyse the necessary infrastructure development, which will bring about blue urbanism.

As a coastal state, sea level rise due to climate change is a fact that is expected to continue regardless of national efforts to curb carbon emissions, which would only affect the rate of rise. Therefore, a proactive strategy would be to embrace the anticipated future environment of larger estuaries and expanse of wetland because it favours a transition to BUE. The Brunei Bay, where the country’s main trade and industrial assets are concentrated, BSB, the capital and main commercial area and Kampong Ayer, Brunei’s cultural hearth and home to its most vulnerable population, would be the leading areas for BUE development because sea level rise will create the environment conducive for it. BUE is founded on ecological concept, and therefore it must be understood from a systems perspective. Systems analysis highlights the importance of an agency that connects all stakeholders to enable and coordinate their participation in, and integration into, the BUE system so as to mutually benefit from it. As the fishery resource of the SCS, and therefore, Brunei waters, is currently over-exploited, a BUE strategy would remediate the situation because it integrates environmental conservation with economic development and inclusive community advancement, which are the goals of sustainable development. In pre-modern times, Brunei was a thalassocracy and its city was built entirely over water in the Brunei estuary. It has therefore thrived as a BUE in the past. A BUE strategy, incorporating lessons learnt from its ICM experience and employing ecological knowledge, will lead Brunei to a sustainable future.