This paper aims to show that innovation does not exclude the possibility of risk minimisation.
The axiomatic model presented is a modification of a two-period financial economy with corporations in which real market activities are coordinated by the financial market and risk is seen through the prism of utility theory. Assuming that in an initial period, it is known what new commodities or what new assets will appear on the market in a second period and what their prices in every state will be, the complete financial market is considered.
It is shown that in the considered economy, under the assumption that every consumer is risk-averse as well as total endowments are not the sources of risk, there is a Pareto optimal allocation in which the plan of every consumer is risk-free. The proposed measure of risk is coherent, in some cases, with one of those used in practice.
The results provide new insights into the possibility of risk aggregation leading to its minimisation, on the basis of analysis of a newly specified two-period economy with a financial market of bonds and equity contracts.
1. Introduction
The analysis of entrepreneurial innovation and evolutionary changes in the production sphere is one of the central subjects of evolutionary economics, especially in the line of thought of Schumpeter’s theory of economic development (Schumpeter, 1934). Innovation is recognised as a major force to achieve organisational success in an intensively competitive environment. However, in a large part of mainstream formalisations of the neo-Schumpeterian theory of economic development (Nelson and Winter, 1982; Nelson and Winter, 2002), the relationship between the real and financial sectors of the economy has not been examined in a satisfactory way because of the lack of specification of the conditions under which there is possibility of risk minimisation within innovative economic evolution.
The multi-period models’ risk is seen through the prism of the utility theory. The basic tool for analysing the actions of individuals under risk conditions is the function of von Neumann-Morgenstern’s utility and its modifications (Neumann and von Morgenstern, 1944; Savage, 1972; Wakker and Deneffe, 1996). Their respective characteristics determine the individual attitudes toward risk. Due to the assumptions usually considered in the multi-periods models, von Neumann–Morgenstern utility function can be naturally applied within the examination of properties of the behaviour of the risk-averse market participants in those type of models (Werner, 1998, 2005).
At the same time, one of the traditional criteria for assessing the effects of collective economic undertakings is the principle of the social optimum of Pareto. These two sequences of terms, which allow us to precisely define one’s attitude toward risk and, on the other hand, Pareto-optimal economic properties, are not disjoint. Their relationship in the equilibrium theory of Arrow and Debreu is described by Arrow (1964) and Werner (1998).
Multi-period models are natural extensions of the Arrow–Debreu model, (1954) which is regarded as a basis for the analysis of the competitive markets (Mas-Colell et al., 1995). In these kinds of models the role of financial markets within the processes on the market of real commodities can also be studied (Werner, 1998). In this context, the models in which agents’ activities under uncertainty (Arrow, 1964; Radner, 1972) or under risk (Arrow, 1965; Werner, 1998) are examined, have been developing for many years (Kaplan and Garrick, 1981; Duffie, 1988; Chew and Mao, 1995; Bell, 1995; Magill and Quinzii, 2002; Netzer, 2009; Robatto and Szentes, 2017; Miyagishima, 2022).
The multi-period equilibrium economies considered by Magill and Quinzii (2002) are examples of models in which the activities of market participants in real markets are coordinated by the financial market while the division of total resources are created for the financial markets. The model presented in the paper is a modification of a two-period financial economy with corporations (Magill and Quinzii, 2002, pp. 329–361). The production sector of the model presented is determined by the existence of a finite number of firms, while the ownership structure of firms is defined as a private ownership, where consumers are the owners.
The different models of risk (Bedford and Cooke, 2001; Cox, 2009; Werner, 2009; Heller and Nehama, 2021) as well as the concepts of aggregation of risk or diversification of risk were born with regard to various applications of analysis of risk (Bjørnsen and Aven, 2019; Hassel et al., 2022). However, the problem of risk classification also has its roots in the sources of risk. Some multi-period models in which financial markets are taken into account enable to analyse the implications of agents’ risk-aversion (Werner, 1998, 2009) and analysis of market participants’ attitudes towards risk leads to its aggregation with respect to some characteristics of the model and, consequently, to its minimising in an optimal allocation (see also Ćwięczek, 2013).
The problem of risk minimisation is strictly related to the necessity to define of the measure of risk (Artzner et al., 1999; Denuit et al., 2005; Jia and Dyer, 1996; MacKenzie, 2014) which usually depends on the model considered and on the initial conditions. Modern methods of risk measurement are based on complex methods that combine statistical-econometric tools and network theory (Denkowska and Wanat, 2021).
The welfare effects of financial innovations in incomplete markets were analysed by Cass and Cittana (1998). Magill and Quinzii (2002) studied the consequences of trading in multi-periods economies with incomplete markets for equilibria of an economy. Carvajal et al. (2012) examined, among others, the economies with innovations, in which in all equilibria, financial markets were incomplete.
In the paper, previous analyses of market participants’ attitudes toward risk and the problem of minimising risk are extended to the risk of introducing innovation. We analyse real and financial innovations in the newly specified two-period competitive economy with the complete financial market of bonds and equity contracts (Section 3). In the model under study, we show that there is a Pareto optimal allocation in which every consumer is risk-free (Section 4). The above result is obtained under the assumptions that total endowments are not the sources of risk, every consumer is risk-averse, the production and consumption sets are convex and equal in all the future states of nature and it is known what new commodities or what new assets will appear on the market in a second period and what their prices in every state will.
The paper consists of six parts. In Section 2, a model of the multi-period economy with the financial market of bonds and equity contracts is presented. Section 3 is devoted to the modelling of innovations in the model considered. Section 4 contains the analysis of aggregate risk in the economy presented. Section 5 of the paper is devoted to discussion, while Section 6 presents conclusions.
2. The model
We consider a modification of the model presented by Magill and Quinzii (2002, pp. 378–426) in which three kinds of market are considered: the commodity market, the bonds market and the stock market. The model presented is a two-period economy in which time and uncertainty are given by an event tree, consisting of the initial period and the finite number of states of nature in a period , where . It is assumed that in period there is only one state of nature denoted as . Hence the modelled economic activity extends over two consecutive periods, and due to which states of nature are considered. Similarly as in Magill and Quinzii (2002) we assume that, for , probability of the occurrence of the state is exogenously given and .
We start the presentation of the economic system which will be later of use with the definitions of the mentioned three kinds of markets considered in the model.
2.1 Market of commodities
We put the following assumptions: in every state , there are available goods on the commodity market, space is the commodity space in the sense of the definition formulated by Arrow and Debreu (1954) as well as price vector is exogenously given (number is the price of the commodity ). Thus, space is the commodity space, whereas vector:
is the price system in the model presented further. Under the above assumptions pair is called the commodity market.
2.2 Market of bonds
Let be the number of bonds, be the vector of bond prices at date (number , for , means the price of the bond ), be the matrix of payment of bonds at date . Bond market is defined as a triple .
For every state , row of matrix consists of the payment of all bonds in state at date , while column , for every , describes the payoff of bond in every state at date . Let vector be the portfolio of agent . That means that coordinate , for every , denotes the number of bonds in portfolio . If at date agent buys portfolio , then ; if agent sells bond , then . Thus portfolio at date is an input-output vector, whereas its values under vector at this date is equal to . More properties of the matrix , the reader can find in Lipieta and Ćwięczek (2022).
2.3 Stock market
It is assumed that, there are equity contracts at date which can be bought or sold in this period. Every contract generates in state at date income . Stock market is defined as a triple , where is the number of equity contracts at date , is the vector of prices of equity contracts at date and is the matrix of payments of equity contracts at date .
2.4 Financial market
Financial market is structure , where means the number of bonds, is the number of equity contracts in state , is the vector of prices of securities in state , where is the vector of prices of bonds and is vector of prices of equity contracts in state , is the matrix of payments of bonds in period and is the matrix of payments of contracts in period .
Let be a portfolio of securities of agent . It is assumed that portfolio is of form , where is the portfolio of bonds and is the portfolio of equity contracts of agent . We say that financial market is complete, if and only, if and . Consider matrix . Under the above notation, the following subspaces of can be considered: , . Now the purchase of portfolio at date generates income stream , where , and , is the row of matrix consisting of the payments of bonds and equity contracts in state at date . More precisely, is the income received from the sale of the portfolio in the state at date .
Space is called the space of state prices or the space of the present-value vectors. Thus, every vector:
is a present-value vector and every coordinate, for , is interpreted as the present-value of one unit of income in state at date . If market is complete, then and consequently vector of the form (2) is uniformly determined.
Let us notice that, by definition (Magill and Quinzii, 2002, p.70), under given there are no arbitrage opportunities on the financial market , if there does not exist a portfolio of bonds and a portfolio of equity contracts such that . So, the absence of arbitrage in the approach presented can be written as follows:
The property (3) also means that there is a vector of positive state prices such that (compare to Magill and Quinzii, 2002, pp. 71–72).
The activities of economic agents on commodity markets are coordinated by the financial market which enables borrowers to take out loans by market participants, thus financing consumers’ and producers’ activities on commodity markets.
2.5 Production system
In the paper, we consider three kinds of firms: individually owned firms, partnerships and corporations, distinguishable depending on the structure of ownership. Finite set , where , denotes set of firms. Set consists of production plans of firm in state , feasible to realisation with respect to technologies; it is assumed that , for every and (Magill and Quinzii, 2002, p. 333). Set is the production set of firm (, . Number is the income firm in every state , vector , where , is the income stream of firm . The matrix of income is of the form:
and vector denotes the income of all firms in state .
Assume that financial market is complete. Each firm aims at realizing a production plan which maximises, at prices , the profit function of firm :
which to every production plan assigns the present-value of the income stream induced by vector , where , .
Production system is a relational system . Let us recall that the expected value of vector under probabilities is equal to , i.e. . Number is the present-value of the income stream in state , induced by the realisation of production plan .
2.6 Consumption system
Finite set , is a set of consumers. Vector denotes a portfolio of bonds of consumer , vector is a portfolio of equity contracts of consumer . Set consists of consumption plans of consumer in state ; it is assumed that , for every and (Magill and Quinzii, 2002, p. 38). Set is the consumption set of consumer (is a plan of action of consumer; it is also called consumer’s consumption plan); is the consumption set of consumer , . Function is a utility function in the state , . Vector means an initial endowment of consumer in state , vector is the initial endowment of consumer , is the vector of total endowments. Consumption system is a relational system .
In consumption system , the budget set of every consumer is defined as: ,
where . The budget set is assumed to be not empty, whereas inequalities determine compliance of expenditures and incomes of consumer on the commodity market and on the bond market. If , then it is said that portfolio of consumer , finances the consumption plan . Function , of the form:
where , is called the expected utility of consumer , where . Hence the form of the expected utility is additively separable over time is (cf. LeRoy and Werner, 2001), as by (5):
The aim of consumers is to maximise the expected utility functions of the budget set.
2.7 Competitive economy with markets of commodities, bonds and equity contracts
The economy presented in the paper is a combination of production and consumption systems in which agents trade a number of securities, i.e. bonds and equity contracts on the financial market. It is assumed that the agents at date correctly determine their future possibilities (i.e. their production set or their consumption sets, utilities and endowments, respectively), their future actions on the market of securities as well as the future prices of goods in every state at date . However, at date there is only one state of nature from set and the information about which state occurs is available to all market participants just at date .
We consider an economy which is a combination of consumption system and the production system in which some firms reached the corporate stage. Thus, in that economic system, it includes consumers and firms active on the commodity markets of commodities, bonds, equity contracts. It is assumed that among the firms at date there is at least one corporation as well as every corporation issues exactly one equity contract. Under the latter assumption, is also the number of corporations on the market, . Let be the set of all firms, be the set of corporations, where If , then set means the set of the firms which do not have the corporate stage at date and they do not issue equity contracts in state . We assume that each firm is owned by a group of shareholders from set and number is an initial share of shareholder in firm as well as:
moreover, if, for some and , , the firm is individually owned by shareholder ; if, for some and , , the firm is a partnership or a corporation. For every , vector is an exogenously given portfolio of initial shares of agent in the set of firms in state . For every , vector is a portfolio of the shares of agent in the set of firms in state , where additionally:
Now, it is needed to modify, in comparison to Section 2.4, the definition of the financial market to adjust it to the considered situation. We admit that is the vector of prices of securities in state ; especially, is the vector of prices of bonds and , where and if , is vector of prices of equity contracts in state :
which means that payment of equity contract, in every state at date , is equal to income of corporation in state (see equation (4)).
The rest of the components of the financial market is the same as in Section 2.4. The financial market satisfying the above assumptions will be denoted as . Financial market is complete, if and only, if and .
Let market be complete. Two periods competitive economy with financial market is a relational system .
Economy operates as follows. There are consumers and firms on the market of commodities. Among the firms, there is at least one corporation. All firms are owned by the shareholders from set and the shares are described by exogenously given vector satisfying assumption (6). Every investment project , , is financed by the shareholders. Under exogenously given price vector of the form (1), the producer’s choices in every state induce income stream where and for .
Thus, the matrix of incomes is of form (4), where number is the income of producer , , in state , . Every column of matrix consists of the incomes of firm in every state in period , whereas every row , consists of the incomes of all firms in the state . The shareholders of corporations at period , after the choice of the production plans by firms to be realized, can sell their portfolios of shares. Thus, if the shareholders, who at date influenced on the choice of the production plans, sell their initial portfolios of shares between dates and , then they will do not have receive the income in period . Consumer can buy a portfolio of bonds at date , . Within the first stage of period agent can sell his shares in corporations described by vector , under given exogenously prices , where:
and is the portfolio of initial shares of agent in the set of firms in state . Within the second stage of period , consumer can buy, also under prices , new portfolio , for which assumption (7) is valid. Thus, the shareholders on the stock market at date sell and buy the portfolios of equity contracts only from set , represented in the model by their shares in those corporations. It is assumed that for number , if agent buys (sells) equity contracts of corporation . As an initial shareholder of firm , agent shares as his part of the initial costs of the firm . The sale of initial share induces income , while the purchase of new share induces cost . Share makes agent get income stream in period equal to , where and for . Hence, the transactions of agent on the financial market generate in period , for , income:
At date , the income stream of consumer is equal to:
Combining the above, the inequalities defining the budget set of consumers are of the form:
Inequalities (10) and (11) lead to the definition of a budget set of consumer :
where: , for , , for and , : where:
and , where satisfies (8).
(compare to Magill and Quinzii, 2002, pp. 379–380). The number of securities (bonds and equity contracts) on financial market is the same in every state. That is why activities on the stock market of those shareholders who hold corporations in their portfolios influence on their budget set at every state.
Sequence , where , , satisfies (13), is called an allocation in economy . Allocation in economy is called feasible, if:
and:
A set of all feasible allocations in economy is denoted by . Equations (14) and (15) are called equilibrium conditions in every state on the real market or the financial market, respectively. On the basis of the above we put the following:
Definition 1. Sequence satisfying:
is called an equilibrium state in economy .
The thesis of the below lemma is the immediate consequences of its assumptions.
Lemma 1. Let sequence satisfy conditions (16) and (17). Suppose that, for some , , as well as , for some . Then:
(1)
(2)
(3)
Put, for
Then . Let .
Lemma 2. Let sequence satisfy conditions (14), (16) and (17). If vector satisfies the following:
then there exists a mapping such that sequence , where and is an equilibrium state in economy .
Proof. See Supplementary Material.
Let us notice that if the market clearing condition on the market of bonds is not satisfied, then, for vectorsare linearly independent. Moreover, under the assumption of Lemma 2, if , then there are infinitely many mappings satisfying the thesis of the lemma and, consequently, infinitely many equilibrium states in economy , determined by sequence .
Lemmas 1 and 2 lead to the following:
Proposition 1. Let sequence satisfy conditions (16) and (17). If
for every , , ;
for every , for some ; and
or satisfies condition (19),
then there is an equilibrium in economy .
Lemma 3. Let sequence be an allocation in economy .
I) Suppose that, for some ;
; and
, for some or , for some .
Then for allocation , where and for , for and for , as well as either or , if ], the following are true:
and ,
2) .
II) If , then for vectors and are linearly independent then there exists a mapping such that, ,
Remark 1 Let sequence be an allocation in economy . If allocation is not feasible and:
for ;
for , for some or , for some ; and
for , vectors and (of the form (18)) are linearly independent,
then there exist a feasible allocation in economy which differs from allocation in the states , for which , only by a plan of either one producer or one consumer (see Lemma 3), as well as, if , then and mapping is defined in the proof of Lemma 2.
3. Innovations in economy with the financial market of bonds and equity contracts
In this part we focus on the analysis of innovation in economy . From now we assume that producers in economy compete and the aim of producers-innovators is introducing innovations to maximise the profit now or in the future, while the aim of producers-non-imitators is to maximise profit. In case of consumers, we assume that they tend to maximise their preferences. The above is coherent with Schumpeter’s theory (Schumpeter, 1934).
Hence in the economy with innovations, the number:
is the maximal profit of firm in state , if the firm is not innovative; if the firm is innovative in state , the number may not be equal to maximal profit of this firm.
Consider firm . Production plan is called an innovative project of firm at date with respect to date , if:
or:
Commodity satisfying (20) is an innovation at date with respect to date . Condition (20) means that innovation appears in every state in period . The firm satisfying (20) or (21) is an innovator or an innovative firm, whereas is innovative plan of innovator . Let us notice that, if condition (21) is satisfied, then in every state at date only technological innovation is introduced by innovator .
If , then besides the innovations on the real market, a financial innovation can appear at date . If at date a new firm from set reaches the corporate stage, then it will issue an equity contract that could be traded in that period and generate an income in period . However, period is the initial period for that “new” corporation, hence it is assumed that it is not allowed to be traded within the first stage of period . However, it can be bought or sold within the second stage of this period. It is assumed that the firms’ activities necessary for introducing the innovations in period were made before period , the firms’ expenditures related to introducing innovations were incurred before period as well as the prices of the new commodities and assets were determined by innovators before period . Hence, in period it is known what new commodities or what new assets will appear on the markets in period and what their prices in every state will. Therefore, we assume that, in the economy under study, the financial market is complete.
Let us go to the details. Let , where , be the number of corporations within the first stage of period and be the number of corporations within the second stage of period . Set is the set of “new” corporations at date . Hence, some new equity contracts appear at date and they are going to be traded within the second stage of period . Moreover, the financial market is assumed to be complete so, consequently, .
Thus, the new possibilities of financing of agent’s activities on the real markets in every state are available. Let us notice that new corporations do not have to be innovators on the real market. If at least one innovation on the real or financial markets appears in period , then the budget sets of those shareholders which own the innovative firms can be changed.
If , then, in consequence of the previous assumptions, we admit:
as well as:
The financial market satisfying the above assumptions also will be denoted as . Below, as above, it is assumed that financial market is complete, which now means that , where:
In state , shareholder can buy portfolio of bonds due to which he obtains payment . He or she receives income connected with the income stream and his initial portfolio of shares . Shareholder can sell portfolio of equity contracts from set and can also buy a new portfolio of equity contracts from set . The transactions of agent on the financial market generate in period , for , the income:
whereas in period , the income stream of consumer is equal to:
Taking the above under consideration, the budget set of consumers is defined as follows:
where: , for , , for and , for
and , where satisfies (25).
Remark 2. Let us notice that in the same way as in Proposition 1 and under the same assumptions, we can prove the existence of equilibrium in economy with innovations.
4. Aggregate risk in economy
Let be the economy with the financial market of bonds and equity contracts defined in Section 3 or the economy with the financial market of bonds and equity contracts with innovations defined in Section 4.
Let us recall that in economy at date only one state of nature from set will appear and all market participants precisely at date will know which state will occur. Such situation is defined as a risk. More precisely, at date the shareholders do not know how high at date the producers’ incomes and the payments of bonds will be. Consequently, the shareholders do not know what level of the utility will they be able to reach at date . Thus, total endowments and production plans of innovators at date influence on the level of producers’ incomes in every state. Consequently, if a consumer’s total endowments in two states at date or two production plans in two states at date or prices of two commodities in two states at date differ, then they may be the sources of the risk. Portfolio of bonds , portfolio of corporations are the same for consumer in every state at date , hence they are not directly the causes of risk in the presented model. However, for every , in every state at date , portfolios and determine the parts of the present value of producers’ incomes and the payments of bonds which are due to shareholder . Hence, the amounts of those payments depend on the state at date and are also the source of risk.
Let us recall that sources of risk are fundamental drivers of risks in economic structure or within economic processes. There are many sources of risks and they identify where risks can originate. Risks can exist at different levels within economic processes or economic structures.
In the paper, it is assumed that producers-imitators aim at profit maximisation, the main aim of producers-innovators is introducing innovations to maximise profits now or in the future, consumers maximise expected utilities on budget sets. If there is more than one such plan, then there is more than one possibility of the choice of agent’s plan of action in every state.
In the context of the above, it makes sense to analyse the aggregate risk and the possibilities of its minimisation in some kinds of feasible allocation. In this place, it should be noted that Werner (1998) proved that in the competitive economy with options, the consumers plans of action in Pareto optimal allocations depend only on the risk. It is not difficult to prove that in the economy considered, the respective version of this property is also satisfied. Firstly, however, we put some additional assumptions and necessary definition.
Definition 2. Feasible allocation in economy is called Pareto optimal allocation, if and only, if there is no feasible allocation in economy such that for every consumer and for at least one consumer .
Let us notice that the definition of Pareto optimality does not depend on a state in period , which confirms the fact that the financial market is an integral part of market activity. That suggests that Pareto optimal allocations could, in some cases, minimise the risk on the budget (see also Werner, 1987, 1998). Below we present the relationship between the equilibrium in economy and Pareto optimal allocation, which is valid in competitive economies.
Let sequence be an allocation in economy .
I) If,
(A1) for every
(A2) for every , , .
(A3) , for some .
(A4) or, if , then for vectors and are linearly independent,
then there is a Pareto optimal allocation in economy .
II) If,
(A5) for some and condition (A2) and (A3) are satisfied, then, for every allocation for which (A4) is satisfied, there is a feasible allocation in economy such that for every consumer and for at least one consumer .
Proof. See Supplementary material.
In the same way as in (Ćwięczek, 2013), the below remark can be proved.
Remark 4. Assume that in economy , for every and , utility function is locally insatiable. If a sequence is an equilibrium state in economy , then allocation is Pareto optimal.
Furthermore, we focus on the economy in which:
Moreover, for every vector we define vectors and as well as allocation of the form:
Vector will be denoted as . Now we put the following definition:
Definition 3. Consumer is risk averse, if and only, if:
Consumer is strictly risk averse, if and only, if:
Definition 3 leads us to the below remark:
Remark 5. Assume that in economy , for every and , , utility function is locally insatiable as well as every consumer is strictly risk averse. If is Pareto optimal allocation in which condition:
then:
Due to Remark 5, we obtain the following property: in Pareto optimal allocation the choice of the plan of action by consumer is the same in the set of those states at date for which the sum of total endowment and total production are equaled. Hence, we say that an allocation in economy satisfying (34) depends only on aggregate risk.
On the basis of the definition of the risk in economy it is clear that consumption plan of consumer in which:
i.e. in every state at date , consumer realizes the same plan, is risk free. Hence a potential measure of the risk in economy of every consumption plan satisfying (36) should be equal to zero.
Let . By distance between and we mean the Euclidean distance between and , i.e. the number:
Now, we suggest the following definition:
Definition 4. Number
where vector is of form (31), is a measure of the aggregate risk of consumption plan , ,
whereas function:
is a measure of aggregate risk of consumer . A measure of the aggregate risk of allocation is a number:
whereas function is a measure of the aggregate risk of feasible allocations in economy .
It is clear that, for every , the measure of the aggregate risk of consumer [see (37)] is equal to zero in vector , if and only, if vector is of form (36). That means that the measure of the aggregate risk of consumer is equal to zero only for allocations in which consumer in every state at date realizes the same plan of action. Thus, consumption plan is risk free, if and only, if its measure of risk is equal to zero, i.e. .
Similarly, only for allocations in which every consumption plan satisfies (36). Moreover, the measure of the aggregate risk in allocation is equal to zero [see (38)], if and only, if the measure of risk of every consumer in consumption plan [see (37)], where , is equal to zero.
Now we prove the following:
Proposition 2. Let , be a Pareto optimal allocation in economy . Assume that:
and every consumer in economy is risk averse. Then:
(i) there is a Pareto optimal allocation in economy in which , for every consumer , as well as ; and
(ii) if, additionally, a consumer is strict risk averse, then .
Proof. See Supplementary material.
Condition (i) by Proposition 2 means that, under the assumption of the Proposition, there is a Pareto optimal allocation in the economy in which every consumer is risk free. Condition (ii) means that, under the assumptions of Proposition 2, if the consumer is strictly risk averse, then his consumption plan in allocation satisfies (36) and consequently is risk free.
If assumption (39) is satisfied in the economy in which every consumer is risk averse, then total endowments in states at date are not the source of risk. Hence, if in the economy Assumption (39) is satisfied, then the consumers’ plans forming Pareto optimal allocation, which are obtained in the thesis of Proposition 2 are risk free. Hence, if a Pareto optimal allocation in economy depends only on aggregate risk due to the total endowment (i.e. if the total endowments in states are not the source of risk), then within Pareto optimal allocations there is at least one allocation in which the plan of action of every consumer is risk free (condition (i)). Moreover, if, additionally in the allocation at least one consumer is strict risk averse, then every consumer’s plan within that allocation is risk free (condition (ii)).
Remark 6. Let be a Pareto optimal allocation in economy in which (38) is satisfied. If every consumer in economy is strict risk averse, then every consumption plan in allocation is risk free.
To sum up the previous results, the below remark is presented:
Remark 7. If in economy , the following are satisfied:
(1) , for every ,
(2) , for every and ,
(3) for every :
(3a) for some .
(3b) for every , ,
(3c) there exists satisfying
(4) or satisfies (19),
(5) conditions (28), (29) and (39) are valid,
(6) every consumer is risk averse,
(7) for every and for every utitlity function is locally insatiable, then there is in the economy a Pareto optimal allocation in in which every consumption plan is risk free.
Remark 8. The Pareto optimal allocation mentioned in Remark 7, can be determined by the following algorithm:
consider sequence satisfying Assumptions (16) and (17);
modify the sequence , if necessary, according to the following recipe (see Lemma 1): if , then , for ;
if , then for , put for and , where mapping is defined in the proof of Proposition 2; and
modify the sequence , if necessary, according to the following recipe (see Lemma 2): if , then , if , then , for , where mapping is defined in the proof of Lemma 2.
Due to Propositions 1 and 2, as well as Remark 4, the sequence is a Pareto optimal allocation in which every consumer’s plan of action is risk free. This sequence is determined by a state of equilibrium in economy .
5. Discussion
We begin by showing the similarities and differences between the mathematical apparatus used in the paper and the methodology typically applied in empirical studies of risk. Let be a number of states of nature in period in economy . Then sequence , where and function is of form: , for , is a probability space (Duffie, 1988). In that space, for every and, functions:
are random variables under probability distribution on the set . Let for and .
It is easy to check that if , then number is the standard deviation of variable (see (37)) while function is invariant, positive homogenous, monotonic and sub additive measure of risk (Emmer et al., 2015). If , then number is, in fact, the Mahalanobis distance (Mahalanobis, 2018) between random variables and (see (31)). Thus, the definition of the measure of risk of allocation (equation (37)) is consistent with those widely applied in the empirical analysis of risk.
As was mentioned, the model considered in Section 3 is the generalisation of the model defined by Magill and Quinzii (2002, pp. 378–426). In the comparison to the original model, in the presented economy the production sector is included and three kinds of firms, i.e. individually owned firms, partnerships and corporations, are analysed in the paper. As a result, the influence of equity contracts and bonds on real-market investments, as well as the consequences of introducing innovations in real or financial markets, could be studied. Thanks to that, aggregate risk could also be examined and measured, which enabled the analysis of the problem of minimising aggregate risk.
In the second part or the paper it was emphasized that the results of introducing innovations are usually examined in the economies with incomplete financial markets. Let us notice that in the framework under consideration, it is assumed that agents in an initial period have full knowledge on the set of commodities and financial assets and their prices that will become available in every possible state of the world in the next period. The prices in the next period are known because, under the assumption of the completeness financial market, a present-value price vector (see equation (2)) is uniformly determined. This informational structure implies that all future contingencies relevant for intertemporal allocation and risk sharing are already known and can be traded upon in the initial period. Therefore, in the paper, a complete financial market is considered. Let us notice that analysing complete markets is valuable because it allows the model to isolate the economic mechanisms of interest without introducing extraneous frictions.
In the framework presented, it is possible to consider incomplete markets; however, doing so would require introducing an additional set of assumptions and examining a larger number of equations describing the behaviour of agents on the markets. Such an extension would increase the complexity of the model and the analysis of future possibilities for risk minimisation.
Let us briefly mention the limitations of the model. The model is not an empirical one, but a theoretical framework in which producers operating under bounded rationality and fully rational consumers have complete access to information about the set of goods and financial instruments, as well as their prices. In addition, transaction costs and credit constraints are not included. These factors limit the applicability of the model to the analysis of real markets, where behaviour is more complex. The model also does not allow for the description of business cycles, which restricts its usefulness for economic policy analysis.
The model presented has some practical implications. The paper demonstrates how real innovations (e.g. new technologies) and financial innovations (e.g. new financial instruments) can be incorporated into agents’ routine activities through specific mechanism rules. This provides tools for analysing how the economy responds to the emergence of new products or technologies. The model and the results presented may be useful in examining how financial innovations influence agent behaviour and how changes in the real sector are transmitted to the financial market. This is important for economic policy and financial supervision.
In the following, we present the contribution of our article to the economic literature in a more detailed way. The combination of mathematical modelling with the analysis of innovation and innovative firms within a relatively simple mathematical framework is what distinguishes our work from those already present in the literature. In the studies cited in the Introduction (for example, Nelson and Winter, 2002), as well as in those published in scientific journals that can be classified within the evolutionary economics tradition, to the best of our knowledge, there are no works that, first, formally capture the relationships between the real and financial sectors while incorporating innovation and second, examine the possibility of minimising aggregate risk. Conversely, Schumpeterian theory of economic development and the modelling of innovation are, to the best of our knowledge, not present in articles devoted to financial market modelling that could be classified within the tradition of mathematical economics (see, for instance, Robatto and Szentes, 2017; Miyagishima, 2022). Similarly, in the two-period economic model defined by Magill and Quinzii, (2002), which served as a starting point for constructing the model presented in the paper, innovation was also not modelled. Additionally, we examine the possibility of minimising aggregate risk in an economic model without relying on the theory of incomplete markets or martingale measures, which is not found in works belonging to the field of financial mathemitics. The paper results, namely, demonstrating that in an economy with commodity and financial markets featuring innovations, there exists a Pareto-optimal allocation in which every consumer is free of risk, under the assumptions considered, can be viewed as a contribution, on the one hand, to the literature on risk minimisation in complete markets (see, for example, Arrow, 1964, 1965; Werner, 2009) and, on the other hand, to the literature on financial market innovation (compare to Carvajal et al., 2012).
6. Conclusions
In the multi-period economic models (Magill and Quinzii, 2002; Werner, 1987, 1998, 2005, 2009; Ćwięczek, 2013; Lipieta and Ćwięczek, 2022) which come from the tradition of Arrow and Debreu model of general equilibrium, relationships between the real and financial sectors of the economy as well as problem of risk minimisation has its solutions.
The solution of the problem of risk minimisation in Pareto optimal allocations presented in the present paper reveals the importance of the equilibria as well as Pareto optimal allocations for the economic and financial analyses. It is worth noting that in the models under study in which the commodity space is reduced to the space of one dimension, the measure of risk considered in the paper is equal to a measure well known from the statistical approach to the analysis of risk. Thus although proposed approach of risk modelling significantly differs from the traditional models often quoted in literature used for studying its phenomenon (for instance Jia and Dyer, 1996; MacKenzie, 2014; Bjørnsen and Aven, 2019; Rodrigues and Gopalakrishna, 2024; Santiago et al., 2025), the proposed measure of the risk is coherent, in some cases, with one those used in practice (Denuit et al., 2005; Emmer et al., 2015).
In the future, we plan to extend our model to a version with an incomplete financial market and to tackle the problem of modeling risk-sharing in the introduction of innovation (for instance, Abada et al., 2025; Das and Ordal, 2026).
The authors are very grateful to Prof. Niklas Wagner (Editor) and the anonymous referee for their inspiring comments, which significantly improved our paper. The authors also wish to express our gratitude to Prof Anna Pajor for her fruitful suggestions.
References
Supplementary material
The supplementary material for this article can be found online.

