This paper presents an initial analysis of the USA’ 2025 tariff programme, announced under the second Trump administration. This study aims to conceptually evaluate the likely economic consequences of these measures, situate them within historical and theoretical trade policy frameworks and outline a forward-looking empirical research agenda.
The analysis draws on historical comparisons with the 2018–2019 trade war, economic theory and empirical literature on tariffs. It also incorporates early economic indicators from 2025 to examine impacts on prices, trade flows and investment.
The study finds that the 2025 tariffs are likely to increase inflationary pressures, disrupt global supply chains and challenge multilateral trade norms. The policy is evaluated as being driven more by political and strategic considerations than by economic optimisation. The authors highlight the importance of second-order effects and uncertainty, especially in firm-level and macroeconomic planning.
As an early-stage assessment, the paper relies on projections and prior empirical evidence rather than post-implementation data. However, it identifies important research avenues on firm-level adjustment, inflation, global trade governance and geopolitical risk.
The paper offers research insights that can help policymakers evaluate the effectiveness and unintended costs of protectionist strategies. It also provides guidance for firms seeking to adapt to the strategic and operational risks introduced by tariff shocks and the resulting uncertainty.
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is one of the first academic papers to evaluate the 2025 US tariff measures in a comparative and theoretical context. It contributes a forward-looking research agenda grounded in trade theory and empirical analysis of past episodes.
