This paper aims to investigate the inclusivity of economic growth and check whether spatial interdependencies matter in inclusive growth analysis across 39 African countries situated south of the Sahara.
These objectives were achieved using the inclusiveness matrix, social mobility curve and panel-based regression. This paper tests the existence of spatial effects by using the spatial Durbin approaches hinged on geographically and institutionally informed weight matrices.
Country-specific results reveal that 13 countries demonstrate both income and equity growth. In 20 countries, income growth is achieved at the expense of equity. Two countries record equity over income growth, while four experience declines in both. The social mobility curves support these findings, illustrating rising average incomes but an uneven income distribution. The panel-based regression indicates that economic growth, though modest, has been inclusive and that spatial effects are significant, with substantial cross-border spillovers influencing inclusive growth from neighbouring countries.
The results point to the necessity of promoting inclusive growth through equitable income distribution and reiterate the importance of recognizing and managing spatial interdependencies across African economies. Strong spatial spillover observed in income distribution and growth suggests that efforts to improve equity nationally can portend positive regional effects. However, given resource constraints and varying institutional capacities, prioritized and targeted investment is essential. Countries should focus on high-impact and equity-enhancing sectors (e.g. basic education, rural health care and social safety nets) that benefit the bottom income cadre and exert strong multiplier effects on growth and equity. Given the presence of spatial effects, a coordinated regional approach is recommended in tandem with strengthened economic integration. While regional co-ordination is pivotal, policy actors should be wary of barriers of unequal bargaining power, weak regional institutions and donor dependency. Therefore, regional spillover policies can begin with blocs that already exhibit economic interlinkages and political alignment. Within these blocs, the equity benchmarks could be harmonized to track distributional outcomes. Cross-border infrastructure and labour mobility can be better aligned to spread growth benefits evenly. Donors and international financial institutions (IFIs) should support regional public goods that foster inclusive growth.
Given the presence of spatial effects, a coordinated regional approach is recommended in tandem with strengthened economic integration. While regional co-ordination is pivotal, policy actors should be wary of barriers of unequal bargaining power, weak regional institutions and donor dependency. Therefore, regional spillover policies can begin with blocs that already exhibit economic interlinkages and political alignment. Within these blocs, the equity benchmarks could be harmonized to track distributional outcomes. Cross-border infrastructure and labour mobility can be better aligned to spread growth benefits evenly. Donors and IFIs should support regional public goods that foster inclusive growth.
This study contributes to the literature by integrating spatial interdependence into inclusive growth analysis, a dimension often overlooked in economic development studies. Using the spatial Durbin approach, it provides novel empirical insights into cross-border spillovers on equity and income growth.
