This paper aims to address the future of cruise tourism from a normative perspective, developing a framework for “inspired science” and transformative research. It details a structured approach for visioning and backcasting to propose a roadmap for regenerative cruise tourism by 2050.
The study introduces artificial intelligence (AI)-facilitated Delphi authoring, using eight large language models (LLMs) as an expert panel. This iterative process uses a backcasting temporal logic to work from a desired 2050 end-state backwards to identify the required transitions.
The research identified 26 measures across financial, legal, operational and behavioural dimensions, which were combined into a three-phase roadmap (now-2030, 2030–2045, 2045–2050). While consensus was reached on the measures and policies required to shift from “doing less harm” to “doing measurable good”, tensions regarding the radicality of their enforcement remained. In addition, a post hoc assessment of the LLMs revealed variations in analytical depth and instances of fabricated citations (hallucinations) in certain models. Finally, subsequent stakeholder-testing exercise, during an international tourism policy conference, supported the roadmap’s potential for improving confidence towards a sustainable and even regenerative future scenario for cruise tourism.
This work offers a novel methodology using generative AI for systematic future-shaping. It shifts the research paradigm from retrospective description to transformative action, providing an actionable blueprint for a net-positive form cruise tourism as an example. This methodological approach is relevant for and applicable to the exploration and management of future challenges in a variety of tourism-related scenarios.
