Chapter 16 Estimating transport demand

In formulating transportation strategies for regions, urban areas or for principal transportation corridors, the principal challenge for transportation practitioners is how to predict the results or estimate the impacts of the various policies and measures which emerge. It is reasonably assumed by decision-makers that predictions of the likely situation a number of years into the future can provide the basis for the operational, environmental and economic assessment of alternative transportation strategies. Transport modelling techniques are used to process information about travel patterns and the general environment within a computer simulation, which can then be used to forecast what might happen if changes to the transport system are introduced. Through transport modelling we can estimate the changes this would make to the demand for transport, travel patterns and travel choices that people might make in the future.