The Alchemy of Global Emissions Trading Scheme (GETS): Speculation and Regulation

We develop an interactive framework to model speculation (over regulation) and regulation (of speculation) in a greenhouse gas (GHG) permits market. In our proposed model, big traders engage in speculation by strategically withholding and releasing permits to influence the temporal path of permit prices in order to maximize their profits. The national government/regulator has an incentive to stabilize permit prices by suitably manipulating stocks of permits. Thus, the GHG permits market can typically be characterized by circular interdependence in which big traders will be “gaming” the regulator to generate profits: the state of the market affects speculative behavior of traders that in turn impacts on government's behavior, which in turn impacts on the state of the market. The interactive framework explores the gaming between speculators and a regulator, or government, to shed crucial insights on the nature of equilibrium in possible global emissions trading schemes (GETS). By so doing, we are able to unravel potential pitfalls of any global trading system in pollution permits for arresting global warming. Once policy makers are aware of these pitfalls, for example, a “culture of speculation” as opposed to a culture of safety, they can devise a suitable mechanism to bypass these potential pitfalls.