Chapter 13: Introduction to Urban Simulation: Design and Development of Operational Models

Urban systems are becoming ever larger and increasingly complex as urban economies, social and political structures and norms, and transportation and other infrastructure systems and technologies evolve. Scarce resources make efficiency critically important, and in a democratic context that involves many stakeholders with conflicting values and priorities, it is neither feasible nor appropriate to deal with major land use and transportation policies and investments as isolated choices to be decided by planners or bureaucrats within the bounds of a single organization.

Mathematical and theoretical models have long been used to attempt to reduce complexity and encode a clear and concise understanding of some aspects of urban structure and transportation, as exemplified by the classic work on the monocentric model of the city (Alonso, 1964; Mills, 1967; Muth, 1969). While the value of theoretical models is facilitating a broad understanding of some underlying principles of urban development and transportation, much of this work remains too simplified in its assumptions and too abstract to be of direct value to agencies needing to inform decisions about specific policies and investments in particular urban settings.