Chapter 8: Quantitative Measures of Cognitive Map Structure: Probability Distributions Derived by Monte Carlo Simulation

The implications and influence of different cognitive map structures on decision-making, reasoning, predictions about future events, affect, and behavior remain poorly understood. To-date, we have not had the mechanisms to determine whether any measure of cognitive map structure picks up anything more than would be detected on a purely random basis. We report a Monte Carlo method of simulation used to empirically estimate parameterized probability outcomes as a means to better understand the behavior of cognitive map. Using worked examples, we demonstrate how the results of our simulation permit the use of exact statistics which can be applied by hand to an individual map or groups of maps, providing maximum utility for the collective and cumulative process of theory building and testing.