The Firths of Forth and Tay flood warning scheme and the storm of December 2012

Coastal flood risk in Scotland is on the increase with a predicted rise in future sea levels and an increasing frequency and severity of storm surges (Ball et al., 2008) and as such the prominence of coastal flood forecasting and warning has grown in recent years. SEPA’s recently published Flood Warning Strategy states that SEPA will aim to reduce the impact of coastal flooding through the provision of reliable and timely flood warnings. Specifically the strategy states that SEPA will increase coastal flood forecasting capabilities and use the latest coastal flooding science developments (SEPA, 2012).

Prior to the introduction of this Firth of Forth and Tay flood warning scheme, the Firth of Clyde was the only area benefiting from a coastal forecasting system and the provision of a coastal flood warning service. This scheme which utilised a dedicated hydrodynamic model integrated into the Delft-FEWS platform (Kaya et al., 2005) was updated in 2009 to improve the quality of the flood forecasts by capitalising on improved modelling technologies and bathymetric information and utilising a Delft3D-Flow hydrodynamic model (Cranston and Tavendale, 2012). However, this forecasting approach currently takes no account of flooding from wave impacts and this new approach presented in this paper aligns to SEPA’s commitment to improve approaches to wind and wave forecasting in coastal and tidal waters.