Chapter 3: Evolving Evaluation Premises and Principles for Working With Assumptions in the Polycrisis

The term “assumptions” can evoke negative connotations. In contrast, the word “premises’ doesn’t carry the stigma of “assumptions’ but can get at the same thing. Value premises express what is important, stating beliefs about what should be. Effectiveness premises make explicit assumptions and hypotheses about how the world works and can be evaluated on whether acting on them contributes to achieving desired results. Effectiveness premises are the basis for principles that offer behavioral guidance, especially useful for navigating the turbulence and uncertainties of complex dynamic systems. Evaluating adherence to principles tests the validity and utility of both the principles and the underlying premises. Utilization-Focused Evaluation illustrates the application of premises and principles in evaluation. Facilitating reflection on intended users’ premises is fundamental to conceptualizing the validity of a proposed theory of change. That leads to examining the evaluation implications of the premise that the world has entered into a state of polycrisis that threatens the future of humanity. That perspective is manifest in the 2024 Earth Day Evaluation Declaration calling on all evaluations to incorporate premises, principles, and criteria addressing environmental, social and economic sustainability, regeneration, and equity to help mitigate the effects of the polycrisis.