Chapter 12: Modelling the Decarbonisation and Digitalisation Transition in Logistics Systems

The freight transport and logistics industry has entered a period of transformation. Increased logistics efficiency and reductions in transport costs have enabled the continuing growth of global supply chains and demand for logistics services. This globalisation process is combined with the development of digital technologies that are transforming market structures and logistics business models.

Logistics practitioners are developing new trend analyses and visions to show how these drivers will cause innovations in logistics that change business and transport systems structures. ALICE AISBL (2017) places a push to low carbon, low energy, and the circular economy as a first major trend, with rapid technology developments in ‘Industry 4.0 and 3D printing, automation, robotics, IoT, Big Data, Future Internet, machine learning and connectivity’ (ALICE AISBL, 2017, p. 18). DHL (2021) argues that innovation in logistics has rapidly increased in the two years since their previous trend report. Some major developments are omni-channel logistics for extended customer services, a move towards zero emissions logistics, digital technologies (blockchain, artificial intelligence (AI), internet of things (IoT)), robotics, and automation in logistics systems. The World Economic Forum (2016) identifies e-commerce giving consumers more possibilities. These include logistics control towers, data analytics as a service, digital international logistics platforms, autonomous vehicles and drones for delivery, three-dimensional (3D) printing and crowdsourcing for production and logistics processes, the circular economy and shared logistics assets as themes of the digital transformation of logistics, with an estimated potential of $1.5 trillion in value for the logistics industry. New logistics concepts such as synchro-modality (Giusti et al., 2019), logistics control towers (Alias et al., 2015), and the physical internet (Montreuil, 2011) have been introduced to implement these changes. Ideas for new or newly combined transport modes – e.g., cargo sous terrain, bicycle/e-vehicle freight transport, intermodality, and shared mobility – are being proposed whose benefits cannot be fully assessed with current tools and methods.