14: Unfinished Business

Before I became an accidental mineral economist, I wanted to use my professional skills in the interest of economic development in Africa. In the event, I have spent it in helping mining companies to make better business decisions about such things as their investments, production, marketing, contracting and a host of related matters. In moments of quiet contemplation, I wonder whether I have betrayed my youthful ideals in the interest of a comfortable upper-middle-class life as a management consultant. However, the more I think about it, the more I feel that this may be an overly harsh judgement.

The world’s population is now over seven billion. On current demographic trends, it may peak at between eight or nine billion around 2050. Of this total, 1.2 billion live in what the World Bank calls high income countries that enjoy an average per capita GDP of $45,000 per year, which permits the kind of consumer society seen in the United States and rapidly emulated by Europe, Japan, Australia, Canada and other rich countries.¹ It may validly be criticised as featuring excess material consumption. However, these countries have ageing populations, their people are well nourished, and material demand is largely for replacement rather than for growth. They are no longer a significant source of growth in demand for primary materials. Recycling, conservation and light-weighting will probably take care of these people at about their current material standard without requiring major new mine development.