The purpose of this study is the analysis of innovation in technology‐intensive industries via the application of scenario analysis (SA) to master the development of market information and competitive environment. This study will employ the technical development of SONY video tape recorder (VTR) as a case study, and then provide more adequate decision information on the technology development strategy (TDS) planning process.
Scenario analysis strategy assessment model will be utilized to construct a future technical development model based on present status, and will diffuse and apply the forecasting model to the cycle period of future market technical innovation. Therefore, applying SA in this study can effectively connect historical information to the analysis of technology development.
This research used SONY VTR TDS as a case study that provides a strategy assessment model to technology‐intensive industry for technical development strategy planning as the basis of decision information for technical forecasting. Output of the R&D department is the core lifeline for the development of a company, and TDS is affected by the orientation of customer demand and has an impact on the development of TLC to form the cycle period of uncertainty.
This model applied the property of TDS assessment to grasp the development trend in the market, and it can enable the R&D department to integrate technical push and market demand pull. In turn, this results in a gain in the competitive edge for technical innovation through a combination with strategies and regulations.
