This paper seeks to present an approach to the improvement of the risk analysis of construction projects by linking risk analysis to the potential variances in time and cost performance of endogenous variables. This link is synchronous, such that changes in either the cost or time schedule variables are uniquely modelled to the overall time and cost profile of a project.
The presented approach is based on synchronous time and cost scheduling, simulation and the methodology presented here develops technical indicators on the basis of virtual management momentum (VMM).
The paper shows a potential improvement to management decision making by the use of VMM. Senior management can test alternative strategies and develop probability matrices defining the potential results.
The current model simulates the impact of endogenous risks, and therefore by implication excludes all exogenous risks. This limitation can be removed by the introduction of other risk vectors, but is beyond the scope of the current research.
The mapping technique utilised to display these changes makes the appreciation of such impacts visually simple and is extremely effective in improving the management of endogenous project risk.
