James J. Duderstadt, president emeritus of the University of Michigan at Ann Arbor, opened the 2004 Educause conference in Denver by saying the future of colleges and universities was more than uncertain in the digital age—it might be downright threatened. He went on to quote business guru Petei Drucker as saying that campuses will be “relics” in 30 years. Duderstadt also quoted Frank H. T. Rhodes, president emeritus of Cornell University as having said that colleges in the digital age are like dinosaurs looking up at the incoming comet (Carlson 2004, p. A34)
Duderstadt is quoted in the Chronicle of Higher Education as saying that: “Faculty members have no kept up.” “Xbox gaming console: have more processing power than most faculty have ever seen in thei lifetime.... [T]echnology is like ; tiger, chasing down institutions... The sense is that we are on the edg of another great change in highe education, except this time it’s glo bal.” And “[w]ill the university a we know it now exist a generation from now?”
To be sure, emeritus presidents o universities have an interesting rol to play in academe. They no longe possess the incredible power the wielded as president, yet they ar sometimes revered for their insight and experiences. They certainl make interesting keynote speakers at least at Educause.
What is less clear is how th emeritus president, or anyone fo that matter, can divine the future. I is one thing to claim the demise o any institution in “30 years,” espe cially when it is likely the person making the prediction will not b around that long. Certainly, it would be easy to criticize those who foretel the “eve of destruction” of universi ties—venerable institutions tha have withstood the changes of cen turies of new ideas and innovations Normally, we in the field of dis tance education would not pay to much attention to these prophecies as most often they are meant to cap ture the attention of often-dis tracted conference attendees However, because distance education is being referred to as the comet bearing down on the dinosaurs, and the tiger chasing down institutions, those in our field have a right to pay close attention—even to feel a little upset.
It is obvious that many do not really understand the potential of distance education. Sure, the infusion of communications technologies will be critical to changes in education and training at all levels, even in universities. Just as certain, at least to this editor, is the unending importance of good ideas, instructional content, and quality teaching. Instruction using technologies to reach students distant in location and time is exciting and promising. Just as certain, teachers, teaching, and important ideas will remain the most basic component of education, especially distance education.
And finally, next time you hear someone say that distance education is going to change the future, and that distance education is bringing the apocalypse, ask them how they know. Their answer might be interesting—but probably not.
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