Public–private partnership (PPP) programs have emerged as a strategic mechanism for infrastructure development in developing countries; yet, most empirical research remains focused on project-level dynamics. To bridge this gap, this study analyzes which combinations of macroeconomic conditions and program design choices lead to the emergence of large-scale PPP programs in developing countries.
Using fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis, this study evaluates 52 PPP programs (including 527 projects and over 123 USD billion) across 8 causal conditions spanning macroeconomic indicators and programmatic decisions.
This study introduces a program-level outcome (normalized PPP program size) that enables meaningful cross-country comparisons of portfolio scale and reveals patterns invisible at the project level. Large-scale PPP programs arise through two robust pathways: (1) a concentrated sectoral focus and bigger average project size and (2) an unsolicited proposals-reliant approach paired with longer contract periods.
This study shifts the analytical lens to the program level, introducing a metric (normalized PPP program size, defined as cumulative PPP investment relative to national GDP) to assess the scale and intensity of national PPP programs. These insights offer a multidimensional framework for understanding PPP program expansion and provide actionable guidance for policymakers seeking to scale infrastructure investment through context-sensitive strategies.
