The upcoming election season, beginning with local polls in May, has the potential to disrupt the fragile political settlement that has held since the 2000 Arusha peace agreement ended the decade-long civil war. Return to ethnic civil war is unlikely, but growing fractures in the ruling Council for the Defence of Democracy-Forces for the Defence of Democracy (CNDD-FDD) indicate the potential for a period of political instability.
Burundi will set a precedent for elections due in Congo (2016) and Rwanda (2017), where incumbents are also constrained by constitutions.
Donors may suspend aid (50% of Burundi's budget) or withdraw from the electoral process if the president clings to power.
However, preferences for regional stability will outweigh donor commitments to democratic norms.
