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Subject

Ireland's economic prospects.

Significance

A number of underlying factors suggest that Ireland's recent economic performance is neither as strong nor as clearly the result of its bailout programme (as opposed to other factors) as might appear. Nevertheless, its impressive recent headline economic results have confirmed Ireland's status as the euro-area's bailout success story.

Impacts

The government -- and therefore taxpayers -- will continue to repay debt taken on to pay bondholders from nationalised banks.

Chagrin about this burden is likely to make Ireland take a hard line against possible euro-area concessions to Greece.

A weak euro and strong UK and US growth will continue to support Irish exports and economic expansion this year.

The government anticipates significant economic stimulus from the ECB's sovereign quantitative easing programme.

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