The increase reflects the introduction of the Basra Heavy oil grade at the start of June. With northern and western Iraq under Islamic State group (ISG) control, Basra is the last fully secure economic base of the government and the country's key strategic asset, facilitating over 80% of Iraq's oil revenues and nearly half its refining sector.
Basra oil exports alone could rise to 3 million barrels per day towards the end of 2015.
Western energy investment in the province will scale up.
The federal government will struggle to contain muscular local actors from gaining a stronger political role.
This could create complications for investors in the medium term.
The key restraint for the growth of foreign investment is payment risk, with Baghdad struggling to pay oil recovery costs.
