The outlook for the Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade agreement.
Ministers representing the countries negotiating the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement recessed their talks on July 31 without concluding the agreement, even though one was expected now that the United States and Japan, the two largest members, have neared agreement on most bilateral issues.
Japan's textiles and transport sectors are likely to benefit significantly; rice will suffer a little and wheat a lot.
Japan's overall gains will probably be small and slow to arrive; US gains will be even smaller.
Both economies are already relatively open and trade makes a small contribution to their GDPs; this limits scope for gains.
The lower-income economies will have by far the largest gains from increased trade and FDI.
