The second-quarter data were below market expectations, but confirmed that the recovery remains on track. Germany and Spain appear more robust, but there is still scant take-off in domestic demand across the euro-area as a whole. Net trade made a positive contribution to growth, thanks to euro weakness. Intra-bloc trade provides a cushion, but this leaves euro-area growth exposed to external drivers when the pace of global expansion faces risks.
Sector detail in September's second-quarter euro-area expenditure breakdown should show a negative contribution from inventories.
Second-quarter growth was below the June ECB staff projection, so the September round will likely see a downgrade to the full-year forecast.
Third-quarter leading indicators suggest accelerating growth, underpinned by less uncertainty after agreement on a third Greek bailout.
The euro will stay weak as the Fed prepares to hike rates and the ECB continues its QE programme.
