Risk of armed conflict in the South China Sea.
US patrols close to Chinese installations in the South China Sea, in the context of growing willingness among China, Vietnam and the Philippines to assert maritime claims by force, raise fears of lethal clashes. These have occurred before, between China and Vietnam in 1974 and 1988, leading respectively to around 70 and 60 deaths.
Neither China's rival claimants nor the United States are likely to risk physically disrupting China's island-building activities.
Unintended conflict is more likely than calculated use of force.
Conflict between China and Vietnam is the most likely conflict scenario.
Washington's need to preserve credibility as a treaty ally and security guarantor would force it to intervene in conflicts.
