The Catalonia independence question is catalysing a broader reconsideration of Spanish state structures. It is also affecting the outlook for the December 20 national parliamentary election, while intensifying polarisation in Catalonia.
Splits among pro-independence forces may see Catalonia's Parliament fail to re-elect Artur Mas as regional president, possibly today.
If so, efforts to form a new Catalonia government would continue; after January 10, 2016, a repeat election would be required.
The Catalan issue may be causing a small voter shift rightwards, making the PP's poll lead more stable, albeit still small, in a tight race.
State reform could risk upsetting the existing accommodation between Madrid and the Basque region, without satisfying many in Catalonia.
