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Significance
Violence has increased significantly since President Pierre Nkurunziza was inaugurated in August. The country is under growing international spotlight as fears are growing that the crisis is adopting an ethnic dimension. However, there are more important factors shaping the chances for escalation.
Impacts
Nkurunziza is unlikely to take on the East African Community (EAC) chairmanship as scheduled at end-November, disrupting regional protocol.
The EAC's budget faces strain as Burundi fails to clear its financial contributions and donors consider pulling some funding.
Refugee flows from Burundi will rise, straining existing tensions with neighbouring states.
Keywords:
Burundi,
AF,
Congo-Kinshasa,
Kenya,
Rwanda,
Tanzania,
Uganda,
politics,
government,
military,
opposition,
rebellion,
international relations,
foreign policy,
peacekeeping,
security
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2015
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