The Islamic State group threat
Reported clashes between Islamic State group (ISG) fighters and Afghan security forces, and the appearance of ISG-style black flags have raised concerns about the ISG threat in Afghanistan. However, many of the alleged sightings of ISG fighters are vague and difficult to verify. Often they are attempts to highlight the general insecurity of certain districts, rather than reflecting real ISG presence. President Ashraf Ghani is attempting to capitalise on the ISG threat by offering Afghanistan as a "regional hub in a transnational effort" against the group.
Afghan officials will exaggerate the ISG threat.
TTP factionalism could increase support for ISG in areas along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.
Key militant groups, especially al-Qaida, will oppose ISG, partly to avoid provoking the Afghan Taliban.
