Since the start of Russian airstrikes last September, the rebels have suffered their largest territorial loss to the regime in two years. The new counter-insurgent strategy involves weakening the opposition through ground offensives, rebel leadership decapitation and population displacement. The Russian intervention has so far succeeded in removing the possibility of regime collapse in the foreseeable future. However, Moscow's ability to reshape military dynamics has its limits.
Russian air strikes will foster the rebel movement's internal cohesion as well as that of their foreign backers.
The stalemate in the civil war will persist, extending the conflict.
Diplomacy will make little headway as a result of the military stalemate.
Refugee flows into Turkey will increase, while those south into Jordan will decline.
Radicalisation will increase in the insurgency, empowering groups such as al-Qaida-affiliated Jabhat al-Nusra.
